Bitcoin (BTC) is still on track to hit $180,000 in its next halving cycle, a longtime market participant has said.
in a new analysis Posted on March 3, Filbfilb, co-founder of DecenTrader trading suite, doubled down on his bullish outlook on BTC price for the next few years.
Filbfilb Keeps Faith In Bitcoin Halving Cycles
With BTC/USD approaching $30,000 but traders highly suspicious of the 2023 rally, sky-high BTC price predictions have been poorly received.
Two current $1 million forecasts, from ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood and former Coinbase exec Balaji Srinivasan, respectively, continue to divide opinion after the crypto winter of 2022.
Considering whether any have merit, Filbfilb turned to raw math to determine some likely macro highs and lows for Bitcoin after its next block grant is halved.
Due at the end of March next year, the halving will again reduce the block reward paid to miners by 50%. In previous four-year cycles after previous halvings, BTC/USD has shown behavioral patterns that are still valid today.
“By using Bitcoin Halving Days (where the inflation rate of new Bitcoins is halved); we can see Bitcoin peaking between 368 and 550 days after the halving and then bottoming out between 779 and 914 days after the cycle,” Filbfilb summarized.
Related: Crypto winter may affect mental health of hodlers
Generating the so-called “price curve”, their analysis shows that it is possible to get a rough idea of where BTC/USD will peak and trough in the next few halving cycles.
“By combining the expected halving dates and days for the peak and trough cycles along with extrapolated regression from the price data, it is possible to use this model to predict where the Bitcoin price may reside at the peak and trough. of future cycles,” he continued.
BTC price at $200,000 or more?
So, in line with 2013, 2017, and 2021, 2025 should see a “double top” setup, in which Bitcoin tops $200,000 twice.
Related: Bitcoin Will Hit $200K Before Next $70K ‘Bear Market’ Cycle – Forecast
The corresponding bear market low a year later centers around $50,000, according to the calculations.
While acknowledging that price volatility and the relative upper run-off trajectory will subside over time, Filbfilb reasons that general global trends toward digital stores of value will help Bitcoin bulls.
Nonetheless, for his part, he thinks the next cycle will bring a slightly lower high than the numbers suggest: around $180,000, which is already up for grabs since February.
“I recently said that $180k is the next target cycle; I’ll stick to that for now,” she concluded.
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