Is this the biggest Bitcoin bull run in history? The analyst says yes!

crypto analyst TechDev (@TechDev_52) recently shared a detailed chart analysis that suggests bitcoin could be on the cusp of its most significant breakout to date. This analysis, supported by historical patterns and technical indicators, points to a possible shift in the market that could lead to unprecedented price levels for bitcoin.

He x.com/TechDev_52/status/1796901153755496832″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>chart provided by TechDev illustrates the price action of bitcoin in USD along with its price relative to the M1 money supply (btc/M1). Historically, bitcoin has exhibited distinct phases of parabolic price increases, known as “burst highs,” followed by sharp corrections. These burst peaks are marked with green checkmarks on the chart and occurred in 2011, 2013, and 2017. Each of these peaks was followed by significant corrections.

Notably, the 2021 spike did not result in an explosion, as indicated by the red cross on the chart. This deviation from historical patterns is significant because it suggests a possible change in market behavior.

TechDev's chart also highlights a key pattern known as the “descending right angle broadening formation.” This technical pattern is characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows, creating a widening wedge shape. The pattern usually signals a period of consolidation, in which the price oscillates within widening trend lines before a decisive breakout. The chart shows that bitcoin has recently broken out of this widening gap, indicating a possible shift from a consolidation phase to a new uptrend.

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The analyst commented: “Significant. bitcoin has only experienced explosive highs after breakouts against the M1 money supply. And the more it consolidates, the longer it will last. This breakout follows the longest consolidation so far. In fact, it represents a classic break from a widening five-year gap. The last 5 years have been corrective compared to the M1. btc is again impulsive against it for the first time since 2017. We have never seen a bitcoin breakout like this.”

bitcoin could surpass the 2021 cycle

Another critical aspect of TechDev's analysis is bitcoin's breakout against the M1 money supply. The M1 money supply includes physical currency and demand deposits, which represent the most liquid forms of money in the economy. TechDev notes that bitcoin has surpassed M1 for the first time since March 2017. This breakout is particularly significant because it suggests that bitcoin's recent price rise is driven by intrinsic demand and not simply an increase in the money supply.

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TechDev comments on this breakout and states: “We are seeing bitcoin's first breakout against the M1 money supply since March 2017, when it went historically parabolic for 9 months. Comparisons and trend projections relative to 2021 can end up drastically underestimating things. One interpretation: In 2021, btc reached new dollar highs due to the increase in the money supply. In 2024 he got there by his own demand (and therefore broke against M1). Add in the anticipated growth of M1 this time and we will likely see btc exceed expectations based in part on 2021.”

TechDev's analysis underscores the importance of understanding bitcoin's performance relative to macroeconomic indicators such as M1 money supply. By breaking through M1, bitcoin demonstrates strong intrinsic demand, which is a bullish signal for future price movements. Historical patterns of explosive highs following similar breakouts suggest that bitcoin could be entering a new phase of price discovery, which could lead to new all-time highs.

At the time of publication, btc was trading at $69,032.

Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com