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bitcoin's price pullback from its new all-time high of $108,353 on Tuesday to around $96,000 (a -11.5% decline) has sparked intense speculation about whether the current bull cycle is nearing its peak. To address the growing uncertainty, Rafael Schultze-Kraft, co-founder of on-chain analytics provider Glassnode, <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/n3ocortex/status/1869800427027607995″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>released an x-thread detailing 18 chain metrics and models. “Where is the TOP of bitcoin?” Schultze-Kraft asked, before laying out his detailed analysis.
Has bitcoin reached the top of its cycle?
1/ MVRV Ratio: An old measure of unrealized profitability, the MVRV ratio compares market value to realized value. Historically, readings above 7 indicated overheating conditions. “It's currently around 3 – room to grow,” Schultze-Kraft said. This suggests that, in terms of aggregate unrealized gains, the market is not yet at levels that previously coincided with macroeconomic highs.
2/ MVRV Price Bands: These bands are derived from the number of days MVRV has spent at extreme levels. Historically, the upper band (3.2) has been exceeded on only about 6% of trading days. Today, this upper band corresponds to a price of $127,000. With bitcoin hovering around $98,000, the market has yet to reach an area that historically marked higher formations.
3/ Profitability of long-term holders (relative unrealized profit and LTH-NUPL): Long-term holders (LTH) are considered more stable market participants. Its net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) metric is currently at 0.75, entering what Schultze-Kraft calls the “euphoria zone.” He commented that in the 2021 cycle, bitcoin multiplied ~3 times more after reaching similar levels (although he clarified that he does not necessarily expect a repeat). Upper historic formations often recorded LTH-NUPL readings above 0.9. Thus, although the metric is high, it has not yet reached the extremes of the previous cycle.
In particular, Schultze-Kraft admitted that his observations may be conservative because the 2021 cycle peaked with somewhat lower profitability values than previous cycles. “I would have expected these profitability metrics to reach slightly higher levels,” he explained. This may indicate decreasing peaks in successive cycles. Investors should be aware that historical extremes may become less pronounced over time.
4/ Annual Realized Gains and Loss Ratio: This metric measures total realized gains relative to realized losses over the past year. The maximums of previous cycles have registered values over 700%. Currently at around 580%, it still shows “room to grow” before reaching levels historically associated with market highs.
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5/ Market Cap to Thermocap Ratio: An early on-chain metric that compares bitcoin's total market cap to the cumulative mining cost (Thermocap). In previous bull runs, the extremes of the ratio were aligned with the market highs. Schultze-Kraft recommends caution with specific target ranges, but notes that current levels are nowhere near previous extremes. The market remains below historical thermocap multiples that indicated overheated conditions in the past.
6/ Thermocap Multiples (32-64x): Historically, bitcoin has outperformed approximately 32-64x Thermocap. “We are at the bottom of this range,” Schultze-Kraft said. Reaching the upper band in the current environment would imply a bitcoin market cap just above $4 trillion. Given that the current market capitalization ($1.924 trillion) is significantly lower, this suggests the possibility of a substantial increase if historical patterns were to hold.
7/ The Investor Tool (2-Year SMA x5): The Investor Tool applies a 2-year Simple Moving Average (SMA) price and a 5x multiple of that SMA to flag potential upper zones. “Which is currently equivalent to $230,000,” Schultze-Kraft said. Since the current price of bitcoin is well below this level, the indicator has not yet shown an unambiguous top signal.
8/ bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT6): This model uses deviations from a 4-year moving average to capture cyclical price extremes. Historically, BPT6 was reached in previous bull markets, and that band now sits at $151,000. With bitcoin at $98,000, the market is still below levels previously associated with peak overheating.
9/ True Market Average and AVIV: True Market Average is an alternative cost basis model. Its equivalent MVRV, known as AVIV, measures the extent to which the market deviates from this average. Historically, highs have been greater than 3 standard deviations. The current equivalent “rises to values greater than ~2.3”, while the current reading is 1.7. “There is room to grow,” Schultze-Kraft said, implying that by this metric, the market has not yet reached its historical extremes.
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10/ Low/Medium/Top Capture Models (Delta Cap Derivatives): These models, based on the Delta Cap metric, historically showed decreased values during the 2021 cycle, without ever reaching the 'Top Cap'. Schultze-Kraft recommends caution when interpreting them due to evolving market structures. Currently, the mid-cap level stands at around $4 trillion, roughly double current levels. If the market were to follow previous patterns, this would allow for considerable growth before reaching levels characteristic of previous highs.
11/ Value of Multiple Days Destroyed (VDDM): This metric measures the spending behavior of long-held coins relative to the annual average. Historically, extreme values above 2.9 indicated that older coins were having a big impact on the market, often during the later stages of bull markets. It is currently at 2.2, not yet at extreme levels. “There is room to grow,” Schultze-Kraft noted, suggesting that not all long-term holders have completely capitulated to profit-taking.
12/ The Mayer Multiple: The Mayer Multiple compares the price with the 200 day SMA. Overbought conditions in previous cycles aligned with values above 2.4. Currently, a Mayer multiple greater than 2.4 would correspond to a price of approximately $167,000. With bitcoin below $100,000, this threshold remains distant.
13/ Cycle Extremes Oscillator Chart: This composite uses multiple binary indicators (MVRV, aSOPR, Puell Multiple, Reserve Risk) to signal cycle extremes. “Currently 2/4 are on,” meaning only half of the conditions tracked for an overheated market are met. The previous highs aligned with a full set of activated signals. As such, the chart suggests that the cycle has not yet reached the intensity of a full-fledged spike.
14/ Pi Cycle Top Indicator: A price-based signal that has historically identified cycle peaks by comparing short-term and long-term moving averages. “Currently, the short moving average sits well below the larger moving average ($74,000 versus $129,000),” said Schultze-Kraft, indicating that there is no crossover and therefore no classic top signal. .
15/ Sell-Side Risk Ratio (LTH version): This ratio compares total realized gains and losses to realized market capitalization. High values correlate with volatile, late-stage bull markets. “The interesting area is 0.8% and more, while we are currently at 0.46%: there is room to grow,” explained Schultze-Kraft. This implies that, despite recent profit taking, the market has not yet entered the zone of intense selling pressure often seen near highs.
16/ LTH Inflation Rate: Schultze-Kraft highlighted the long-term headline inflation rate as “the most bearish chart I have come across so far.” While he did not provide specific target values or thresholds in this excerpt, he stated that it “screams caution.” Investors should monitor this closely as it may indicate greater distribution by long-term holders or other structural headwinds.
17/ STH-SOPR (Short-Term Holders Spent Production Profit Ratio): This metric measures the profit-taking behavior of short-term holders. “Currently elevated, but not sustained,” Schultze-Kraft said. In other words, while short-term participants are taking profits, the data does not yet show the kind of persistent, aggressive profit-taking typical of a market spike.
18/ SLRV Tapes: These tapes track trends in realized value over the short and long term. Historically, when both moving averages peak and cross, it indicates a market turning point. “Both moving averages are still in an uptrend, they only turn bearish at rounded highs and crossovers. There is no indication of a ceiling at this time,” Schultze-Kraft said.
Overall, Schultze-Kraft emphasized that these metrics should not be used in isolation. “Never rely on single data points: confluence is your friend,” he advised. He acknowledged that this is a non-exhaustive list and that bitcoin's evolving ecosystem (now with ETFs, regulatory clarity, institutional adoption and geopolitical factors) may make historical comparisons less reliable. “This cycle may look very different, but all we have is (historical) data,” he concluded.
While numerous metrics show the bitcoin market is moving into more euphoric and profitable territory, few have reached the historic extremes that marked the peaks of previous cycles. Indicators such as MVRV, profitability indices, thermal metrics, and various price-based models generally suggest “room to grow,” although at least one of them (the LTH inflation rate) raises a note of caution. Some compounds are only partially activated, while classic top signals, such as Pi Cycle Top, remain inactive.
At the time of publication, btc was trading at $96,037.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
