This article is also available in Spanish.
Cryptoanalyst Bob Loukas has published a new video analysis titled “No Bull.” In the video, Loukas delves into the current state of the bitcoin market and addresses growing concerns about the possibility of a bull run being canceled.
Loukas begins by acknowledging the prolonged period of bitcoin price consolidation. He feels that “there is some fear creeping into the market now,” partly due to factors like the bitcoin ETF being “down for quite some time” and the halving “coming and going,” without sparking a significant bullish move. of prices.
Is the bitcoin bull run over?
Loukas notes that while traditional markets are performing strongly (with “the stock market hitting all-time highs seemingly every week” and “even gold hitting big all-time highs”), bitcoin continues to “languish” and altcoins are “virtually They're dying.” a slow death.” He notes that “the only thing that really works are really speculative memecoins,” which contributes to the negative sentiment in the crypto space.
However, he considers this development “something normal”, and emphasizes that despite these challenges, bitcoin remains “close to the all-time highs of the previous cycle.” When talking about the eight months of bitcoin price consolidation, Loukas interprets this period as a bullish sign. “Eight months of consolidation is actually quite optimistic if the timing is right in the four-year cycle. The feeling is correct, it has been restored; Fundamentals, macro, I think they all seem correct,” he says.
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Loukas also highlights that the market has been “23 months” since the lows of the last cycle in November 2022, “barely a 24-month or 2-year anniversary of this cycle,” which should end around November-December. 2026. He acknowledges “quite a bit of fear that has crept into this market” after a “very bullish and very frothy period” from the ETF approval leak in September-October 2023 to the peak in March 2024.
One of the main fears, according to Loukas, is that bitcoin reached its last all-time high seven months ago in March, and since then, “we have been forming these lower highs on a monthly level and also, to some extent, a lower low.” . structure.” This has created anxiety among investors who “entered the market too late, waiting for confirmation,” only to find themselves “stuck when the market followed this five-month straight move,” without giving them the opportunity to buy during a dip.
He notes that many investors have “got into a lot of altcoins this last period that are now down 50, 60, 70%,” leading to a situation where, even though bitcoin is “still around 3 times above the lows”, a Many people feel that they have not “extracted any type of value from this cycle” or even “have lost money during this period.” Loukas considers that this scenario is “quite normal from the point of view of the structure of the cycle.”
He emphasizes that during this bull phase, the market did not experience a “typical 30% drop at any given time,” and the “larger drops” were “mainly time-based and were only about 20% from the peak to the bottom.” minimum before.” reaching a new high.” This atypical behavior “baffled a lot of people” and “made it difficult for people to get in” as they were “looking to buy into a dip that never actually occurred.”
Loukas suggests that the current consolidation is a necessary phase to “completely reset sentiment to prepare for the next phase of this four-year cycle.” He finds it significant that bitcoin is “sitting here for 23 months, about 20% off the all-time highs of the last four-year cycle in 2021,” making him feel “more prepared for the next phase of the four-year cycle.” than anything else.”
He also draws parallels with previous cycles, noting that from the cycle low in December 2018 to the first point at which bitcoin hit a new high, “it took 23 months to reach the four-year cycle high price to surpass.” Similar patterns were seen in previous cycles, with timeframes of “around 25 months” and “around 22 months” to reach new all-time highs. Instead, the current cycle reached this milestone “in just 16 months, much sooner,” which he attributes largely to news about ETFs that “forced buyers to enter the cycle earlier than normal.”
Loukas believes this accelerated timeline has created a dynamic where “we now have to rotate a lot of coins,” allowing “a lot of whales, a lot of veterans” to “unlock” and “go out and rotate,” while “institutional players and Players with larger accounts have been accumulating those coins in this period.” He considers this “a matter of time more than anything else,” interpreting the current period as a process in which the market “ends up erasing all that bullish sentiment” from the previous phase, thus allowing “a complete separation of a phase.” of the cycle.” cycle to this phase of the cycle,” essentially a “mid-cycle taper.”
When will btc price skyrocket?
Overall, Loukas remains largely optimistic: “So far in this four-year cycle, I see nothing that has changed that trajectory, nothing in the profile or the structure that tells me that this cycle is different from the last few cycles.” .
He cites several factors supporting his bullish outlook, including “massive inflows into bitcoin, mostly institutional players,” and the absorption of large liquidations by entities such as “the German government” and “the US government,” which do not have significantly impacted the price. Loukas highlights that “the price has dropped only 20%; “It has held up well.” He also mentions that “the ETF is still there; It will be promoted through the channels of independent advisors” and “the time has come; At the macro level, the fundamentals are there.”
Loukas is particularly excited about cyclical patterns, noting that “the third year of each of these four cycles is where the magic happens.” He explains that “the first year surprises everyone, it gains a lot of ground. The second year seems to stagnate because it consolidates that first year of profits. And the third year is the year of mania. And right now, starting next month, we have the year of mania coming up.”
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He predicts that “within the next 90 days… we will break out of this consolidation range; “We are going to break higher.” Once this happens, he believes bitcoin “won’t look back,” anticipating a period where “maybe we only see one or two red monthly candles and mostly green candles.” While he refrains from providing specific price targets, he acknowledges that reaching “between $120,000 and $180,000 also seems very reasonable.”
Loukas emphasizes that the focus should be on “time and sentiment,” pointing to a move “in the range where previous cycles peaked,” which has been “very consistent in around the 35th month since the last low.” . This timing would place the projected peak around “October 2025,” giving “another 12 months to an expected or projected peak.” He notes that this is not set in stone and that the peak could come “three, four, five months earlier,” as market movements “can have many different flavors.”
As for the immediate future, Loukas admits that the next two months are “a little murky,” with “a lot of factors still in play right now.” He mentions the upcoming US election on November 4 and mentions that “Trump and the Republican Party have really been pushing cryptocurrencies and bitcoin” and that “the market will certainly respond very, very favorably to a Republican Party election victory simply because of their stance.” “However, he clarifies that he does not believe that it “matters in the slightest” who wins, since bitcoin has prospered even when “governments have been very hostile towards it.”
Loukas speculates that the market could “trend sideways during that period in November” and that a significant move may not occur until after the election concludes. He suggests that “we still have about three or four weeks of some sideways trend left” and he would be “very surprised if this market can get to $70,000 before the election here in the United States.”
At the time of this publication, btc was trading at $60,699.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
