Expectations of a bitcoin bull run in 2024 continue to drive investment decisions across the space. Several reasons have been given for the expected bull run, including the approval of bitcoin spot ETF trading as well as the upcoming btc halving event. One analyst echoed the latter and explained why the halving will spark a bull market.
bitcoin Halving Event Will Drive Market Up
crypto analyst James van Straten took to X (formerly Twitter) to explain why the bitcoin halving event is bullish for the price. Now, the halving is an event that is scheduled to occur approximately every four years, cutting the block rewards in half each time it happens.
This means that the amount of btc that miners receive for mining a block is immediately reduced by 50%, thus drastically reducing the number of new coins entering circulation. Currently, the block reward is 6.25 btc and the upcoming halving will reduce it to 3.125.
Straten points out this reduction, using monthly issuance as a case study. He explains that over the last month, miners and exchanges have accumulated a total of 61,000 btc. However, after the halving, the monthly issuance is expected to fall to 13,500 btc and it is this drop that is the most significant.
The last 30 days of all included cohorts, miners and exchanges have accumulated 61,000 bitcoin?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw” rel=”nofollow”>#bitcoin.
When monthly issuance is halved in April to 13,500 bitcoin?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw” rel=”nofollow”>#bitcoin.
If demand remains the same, it exceeds emission by a factor of 4.
The market will most likely find a balance… https://t.co/FZOWsa8AGR pic.twitter.com/yn4lsF3cPG
—James Van Straten (@jvs_btc) February 6, 2024
As Straten points out, if demand remained elevated at the same levels when the halving occurs, demand would exceed supply by a factor of four. This will cause a change in the market, which will have to “find a probably higher equilibrium.” In other words, prices would have to rise to keep up with demand.
<img decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-medium" src="https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Here39s-why-a-Bitcoin-bull-run-in-2024-is-inevitable" alt="Tradingview.com bitcoin Price Chart” width=”3286″ height=”1530″ loading=”lazy”/>
btc price recovers from crash | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com
Targets for btc price in 2024
Another bullish factor for the price of bitcoin is that the halving year coincides with the US presidential elections. As Markus Thielen, head of research at Matrixport, noted in an analysis, this coincidence has always been bullish for the price.
The report goes back to the previous halving and election years, showing that the price of bitcoin ended on a high note. In the last three years of halving, btc rose by 152% in 2012, 121% in 2016, and 302% in 2020, showing a consistent trend.
With 2024 set to be another election and halving year, the research analyst expects the price of bitcoin to end the year at $70,000. This would mean another 65% rally from current price levels and, if trends hold, the start of another bull market.
“Supported by the macro environment, monetary tailwinds, the US election cycle, and growing demand from TradeFi investors allocating funds to bitcoin ETFs, a bitcoin rally to 70,000 appears plausible,” he said Thielen.
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