The current price behavior of bitcoin and its deviations from expected cyclical patterns remain a central topic of analysis. crypto analyst Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) recently shared new insights into x about bitcoin's potential peak during the ongoing bull run, which is progressing at an atypical pace compared to historical data.
When will bitcoin peak in this cycle?
in a detailed twitter.com/rektcapital/status/1787107155515937108″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>mail, Rekt Capital noted that as of mid-March 2024, bitcoin had not only reached new all-time highs, but had done so approximately 260 days ahead of its traditional halving-induced cycles. This marked a significant acceleration. “When bitcoin hit new all-time highs in mid-March 2024, bitcoin was accelerating its cycle by 260 days compared to traditional halving cycles,” Rekt Capital stated.
However, this rapid pace has not been sustained. For the past two months, bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase, which has altered its trajectory. The acceleration advantage has decreased to about 210 days compared to previous cycles. This slowdown is a critical factor as it could lead to a resynchronization with the typical halving cycle. Typically, btc peaks between 518 and 546 days after a halving event.
The analyst suggests shifting the predictive focus from simply halving events to the periods after bitcoin surpasses its previous all-time highs. Historically, btc price tends to reach a bull market high within 266 to 315 days of breaking these thresholds. Since this milestone was reached again in mid-March 2024, the projected window for the next bull market peak could be set between late November 2024 and late January 2025.
However, one notable trend is the increasing duration during which bitcoin holds levels beyond its old highs. In 2013, this period lasted 268 days, in 2017 it was extended to 280 days, and by 2021 it had increased to 315 days.
This pattern suggests an incremental extension of approximately 14 to 35 days per cycle. “Historically, the number of days bitcoin has gone beyond former all-time highs has increased from approximately 14 days to 35 days,” Rekt Capital explained.
Adding these increases to the initial range of 266 to 315 days after the previous highs, the peak could potentially extend to 280 to 350 days after the breakout. This adjustment shifts the expected peak period between mid-December 2024 and early March 2025.
Potential timing with halving cycles
Despite the current accelerated cycle, there remains a chance that a further slowdown could bring bitcoin more into line with its halving cycle. In previous cycles, such as 2015-2017 and 2019-2021, bitcoin peaked at 518 and 546 days after the halving, respectively. If bitcoin's acceleration rate continues to decline, the cycle could eventually resynchronize, potentially delaying the peak between mid-September and mid-October 2025.
Rekt Capital explains: “But if bitcoin continues to reduce its current acceleration in the cycle, it would resynchronize with traditional halving cycles.” This could result in a peak more aligned with historical patterns, diverging from the current accelerated schedule.
At the time of publication, btc was trading at $64,262.
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent NewsBTC's views on whether to buy, sell or hold investments, and investing naturally carries risks. It is recommended that you conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use the information provided on this website at your own risk.
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″>
