NEWSLETTEREthereum’s token Ether (ETH) fell more than 7.5% against its Bitcoin (BTC) pair in 2023. But ETH/BTC may completely erase its year-to-date (YTD) losses in April as the Ethereum’s long-awaited Shanghai hard fork is only days away.
The upgrade is scheduled for April 12, which will allow Ethereum participants to withdraw around 1.1 billion ETH in rewards, worth more than $2 billion starting April 8.
ETH Price Experiences Key Technical Bounce
Many experts see the hard fork as bullish for Ether in the long term. For example, the Shanghai buzz has helped Ether outperform Bitcoin in April so far.
As a result, the ETH/BTC pair is up 4.75% month-to-date to hit 0.066 BTC on April 8, a nearly 8% rally since March 20.
The bounce was largely expected, particularly as ETH/BTC fell to its historical rising trendline support. Now, the move higher raises prospects for a prolonged bullish retracement towards its falling trendline resistance, marked as a “sell zone” on the chart below.
The fractal-based outlook places Ether at the target of 0.075 BTC for June, 10% higher than current price levels. Meanwhile, the pair’s bullish target for April appears to be its 50-3D exponential moving average (50-3D EMA; the red wave) near 0.069 BTC.
Conversely, a decisive close below the 200-3D EMA (the blue wave) near 0.066 BTC, coinciding with the support/resistance level near 0.067 BTC, risks delaying or, at worst, cases, override the bullish retracement setup.
This bearish argument is echoed by independent market analyst CrediBULL Crypto, who expects strong selling pressure near the 0.067 BTC resistance level that would lead to a 50% drop in 2023.
Ethereum outlook against the dollar
The ETH/USD pair is up more than 50% in 2023, mainly due to similar uptrends elsewhere in the crypto market.
TO weakened dollar, lower US Treasury yields and expectations of a turnaround from the Federal Reserve on interest rate hikes have helped push cryptocurrencies higher across the board in the first quarter. These catalysts are likely to remain in the spotlight until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in May.
Shanghai bringing the first green shoots of #AltcoinSeason ?$ETH it’s warming up to an 8 month high as we get closer to a week until the Shanghai fork update at 10:27:35pm UTC on the 12th (Epoch #620.9536)
The rally has mostly been a Fed/USD rate story, causing BTC to lead the way.… pic.twitter.com/dI0bpywR16
—Rich Rosenblum (@Rich_GSR) April 4, 2023
As a result, Ether could maintain its yearly gains in April, consolidating within the $1,800-2,000 range until the Fed’s decision.
Related: 3 Key Ethereum Price Metrics Cast Doubts on the Strength of ETH’s Recent Rally
Additionally, a decisive break at current levels could result in extended gains with a Q2 ETH price target above $3,000.
On the other hand, the bears will try to push the price down to close below $1800 with the lower trend line of the triangle near $1600 as their downside target.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
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