Famed economist David Rosenberg warned of a “hard landing” and imminent recession for the US economy. Referring to the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index chart, he emphasized: “Take a good look at this chart and tell me we’re headed for a ‘soft’ or ‘no’ landing. More like a crash landing.
Economist expects a hard landing
Famed economist David Rosenberg warned in a tweet last week that the US economy could be headed for a hard landing. Rosenberg is the president and chief economist of Rosenberg Research. He was previously Chief Economist and Strategist at the private wealth management firm Gluskin Sheff and Chief North American Economist at Merrill Lynch in New York.
Sharing a chart on Twitter Thursday showing the outlook for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s manufacturing business since 1968, he wrote:
Take a good look at this chart and tell me we’re headed for a ‘soft’ or ‘no’ landing. More like a crash landing.
Rosenberg further noted that the Philadelphia Federal Reserve (Philly Fed) has accurately predicted recessions in the United States with 100% accuracy in the past. He wrote:
Philadelphia Fed at 8 for 8 on recession call and no head fakes.
The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index is based on the monthly Business Outlook Survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District, home to more than 13.3 million people in Delaware, southern New Jersey, and the eastern and central Pennsylvania. The survey has been conducted every month since May 1968. The US index rose 1 point to -23.2 in March.
Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at wealth management firm Creative Planning, similarly explained on Twitter in February how the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index accurately predicted past recessions, stating:
In the past (data going back to 1968), whenever this indicator was at or below current levels, the US economy was in or close to recession.
Several prominent voices in the financial industry are forecasting a collapse and a severe recession for the US economy. Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki recently warned of a “hard landing.” “Big Short” investor Michael Burry compared the current banking crisis to the panic of 1907. Economist Peter Schiff expects the current financial crisis to be worse than it was in 2008. Meanwhile, venture capitalist Balaji Srinivasan said on Friday that hyperinflation It is happening now, expecting the bitcoin price to jump to $1 million in less than 90 days.
Do you agree with economist David Rosenberg that the US economy is on a trajectory towards a hard landing and recession? Let us know in the comments section.
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