After reaching a historical maximum above $ 100,000, the price of bitcoin has entered a doping trend of several weeks. This correction has raised questions naturally about whether bitcoin is still aligned with the 2017 bull cycle. Here we will analyze the data to evaluate how closely the current price action of bitcoin is correlated with the previous upward markets and what we can expect below for btc.
bitcoin <a target="_blank" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/bitcoin-portfolio/btc-growth-since-cycle-lows/”>Price trajectory from the cycle. Established during the Bear 2022 market, it has shown notable similarities with the 2015-2017 cycle, the upward market that culminated in bitcoin reaching $ 20,000 in December 2017. However, the recent bitcoin bearish trend marks the first important divergence of the 2017 pattern. If bitcoin was still tracking the 2017 cycle, it should have gathered new maximums of all times during the past month, Instead, bitcoin has moved sideways and decreasing, suggesting that the correlation can be weakening.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1456" height="818" alt="" class="wp-image-41630" title="Is bitcoin Price Performance in 2025 Repeating 2017 Bull Cycle? 1″ srcset=”https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2Fee019e92-a798-46f4-a6da-c138ad181f50_1600x899-1.jpg 1456w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2Fee019e92-a798-46f4-a6da-c138ad181f50_1600x899-1-300×169.jpg 300w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2Fee019e92-a798-46f4-a6da-c138ad181f50_1600x899-1-1024×575.jpg 1024w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2Fee019e92-a798-46f4-a6da-c138ad181f50_1600x899-1-768×431.jpg 768w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2Fee019e92-a798-46f4-a6da-c138ad181f50_1600x899-1-748×420.jpg 748w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2Fee019e92-a798-46f4-a6da-c138ad181f50_1600x899-1-696×391.jpg 696w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2Fee019e92-a798-46f4-a6da-c138ad181f50_1600x899-1-1068×600.jpg 1068w” sizes=”auto, (max-width: 1456px) 100vw, 1456px” src=”https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2Fee019e92-a798-46f4-a6da-c138ad181f50_1600x899-1.jpg”/>Figure 1: The current cycle trajectory has recently dangited from historical patterns.
<a target="_blank" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/bitcoin-portfolio/btc-growth-since-cycle-lows/”>See live graphic
Despite the recent divergence, the historical correlation between the current bitcoin cycle and the 2017 cycle remains surprisingly high. The correlation between the current cycle and the 2015-2017 cycle was around 92% earlier this year. The recent price divergence has slightly reduced the 91%correlation, it remains an extremely high figure for financial markets.
How bitcoin market behavior echoes the 2017 cycle patterns
He MVRV ratio It is a key indicator of investor behavior. It measures the relationship between the current bitcoin market price and the average cost base of all btc maintained on the network. When the MVRV ratio increases sharply, it indicates that investors are sitting on significant not made, a condition that often precedes the market. When the relationship decreases towards the price made, it points out that bitcoin is quoted near the average price acquisition price, often marking a fund phase.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1456" height="820" alt="" class="wp-image-41629" title="Is bitcoin Price Performance in 2025 Repeating 2017 Bull Cycle? 2″ srcset=”https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2F713c8d3a-5078-47a3-bf35-a3fd39441c75_1600x901-1.jpg 1456w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2F713c8d3a-5078-47a3-bf35-a3fd39441c75_1600x901-1-300×169.jpg 300w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2F713c8d3a-5078-47a3-bf35-a3fd39441c75_1600x901-1-1024×577.jpg 1024w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2F713c8d3a-5078-47a3-bf35-a3fd39441c75_1600x901-1-768×433.jpg 768w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2F713c8d3a-5078-47a3-bf35-a3fd39441c75_1600x901-1-746×420.jpg 746w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2F713c8d3a-5078-47a3-bf35-a3fd39441c75_1600x901-1-696×392.jpg 696w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2F713c8d3a-5078-47a3-bf35-a3fd39441c75_1600x901-1-1068×601.jpg 1068w” sizes=”auto, (max-width: 1456px) 100vw, 1456px” src=”https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2F713c8d3a-5078-47a3-bf35-a3fd39441c75_1600x901-1.jpg”/>Figure 2: The MVRV ratio still moves similar to the 2017 cycle.
The recent decrease in the MVRV ratio reflects the correction of bitcoin from the maximum of all time, however, the MVRV ratio remains structurally similar to the 2017 cycle with a rally in the early upward market, followed by multiple acute corrections and, as such, the correlation remains at 80%.
A possible explanation of recent divergence is the influence of data delay. For example, bitcoin's price action has shown a strong correlation with Global liquiditythe total offer of money in the main economies; However, historical analysis shows that changes in liquidity often take about 2 months to reflect on the price of bitcoin's price.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1456" height="817" alt="" class="wp-image-41631" title="Is bitcoin Price Performance in 2025 Repeating 2017 Bull Cycle? 3″ srcset=”https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2Fd5e9bfec-658b-4edf-b776-da1dbb6b06d3_1600x898-1.png 1456w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2Fd5e9bfec-658b-4edf-b776-da1dbb6b06d3_1600x898-1-300×168.png 300w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2Fd5e9bfec-658b-4edf-b776-da1dbb6b06d3_1600x898-1-1024×575.png 1024w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2Fd5e9bfec-658b-4edf-b776-da1dbb6b06d3_1600x898-1-768×431.png 768w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2Fd5e9bfec-658b-4edf-b776-da1dbb6b06d3_1600x898-1-748×420.png 748w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2Fd5e9bfec-658b-4edf-b776-da1dbb6b06d3_1600x898-1-696×391.png 696w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2Fd5e9bfec-658b-4edf-b776-da1dbb6b06d3_1600x898-1-1068×599.png 1068w” sizes=”auto, (max-width: 1456px) 100vw, 1456px” src=”https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2Fd5e9bfec-658b-4edf-b776-da1dbb6b06d3_1600x898-1.png”/>Figure 3: Global M2 has a delayed impact on the action of the btc price.
<a target="_blank" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/bitcoin-portfolio/btc-growth-since-cycle-lows/”>See live graphic
By applying a 30 -day delay to bitcoin's price action in relation to the 2017 cycle, the correlation increases to 93%, which would be the highest correlation registered between the two cycles. The pattern adjusted by delay suggests that bitcoin could soon resume the 2017 trajectory, which implies that an important manifestation could be on the horizon.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1456" height="817" alt="" class="wp-image-41632" title="Is bitcoin Price Performance in 2025 Repeating 2017 Bull Cycle? 4″ srcset=”https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2F0fef2107-e2d4-4788-a558-468bcad0d40c_1600x898-1.png 1456w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2F0fef2107-e2d4-4788-a558-468bcad0d40c_1600x898-1-300×168.png 300w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2F0fef2107-e2d4-4788-a558-468bcad0d40c_1600x898-1-1024×575.png 1024w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2F0fef2107-e2d4-4788-a558-468bcad0d40c_1600x898-1-768×431.png 768w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2F0fef2107-e2d4-4788-a558-468bcad0d40c_1600x898-1-748×420.png 748w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2F0fef2107-e2d4-4788-a558-468bcad0d40c_1600x898-1-696×391.png 696w, https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2F0fef2107-e2d4-4788-a558-468bcad0d40c_1600x898-1-1068×599.png 1068w” sizes=”auto, (max-width: 1456px) 100vw, 1456px” src=”https://cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp/assets/images/optimized/rev-e9e27c1/bitcoinmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/https3A2F2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com2Fpublic2Fimages2F0fef2107-e2d4-4788-a558-468bcad0d40c_1600x898-1.png”/>Figure 4: The price is still very closely the data of 2017 when delayed in 30 days.
What the 2017 Toro cycle signals mean for the price of bitcoin today
History may not be repeated, but often rhyme. The current bitcoin cycle may not offer exponential profits in 2017, but the psychology of the underlying market is still surprisingly similar. If bitcoin resumes his correlation with the lagging 2017 cycle, the historical precedent suggests that bitcoin could soon recover from the current correction, and could follow a movement up.
Explore live data, graphics, indicators and in -depth research to stay in front of bitcoin's price action in bitcoin Pro Magazine.
Discharge of responsibility: This article is only for informative purposes and financial advice should not be considered. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
NEWSLETTER
