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Some analysts expressed concern that bitcoin may experience a possible crash that will be driven by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) breach, causing a large drop in its price.
With bitcoin needing to fill the gap, cryptocurrency traders predict that it could push the first-born cryptocurrency close to the critical CME gap, suggesting its price could drop as low as $77,000 per coin.
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bitcoin could fall to $77,000
crypto analyst Egrag crypto suggested that the massive corrections bitcoin has been experiencing could cause the coin to fall to the $77,000 mark.
Egrag added that since October 2022, the flagship cryptocurrency has suffered about seven considerable drops, adding: “The average drop in these events is approximately 23.53%.”
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet”>
<a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/btc?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw” rel=”nofollow”>#btc Drop: Average Dump and CME (70K-74K): How and Why?
1⃣Average drop:
From October 2022, <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/btc?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw” rel=”nofollow”>#btc has experienced almost seven significant declines. Here are the percentage drops:
1) 22.70%
2) 20.18%
3) 21.70%
4) 21.42%
5) 23.27%
6) 25.82%
7) 29.65%
The average drop in… pic.twitter.com/Vz6QiZlnzF
– EGRAG crypto (@egragcrypto) <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/egragcrypto/status/1872598160557625762?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw” rel=”nofollow”>December 27, 2024
“From the current high of around 108,975, we are looking at a potential drop to the lower end of the CME GAP (between 77,000 and 80,000). This represents a 25% decline, which aligns well with the average decline seen during this cycle,” Egrag said in a post.
Egrag also noted that the current 21 weekly EMA is around $80,000, suggesting that “another flash crash could be on the horizon.”
CME gap at $80,000
Another crypto analyst, XForceGlobal, reminded traders that “there is a $80,000 CME 1D gap.”
XForceGlobal said that historically, 90% of the largest daily CME gaps have finally been filled since 2018.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet”>
<a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BTC&src=ctag&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw” rel=”nofollow”>$btc
Just a friendly reminder: there is an $80,000 1D CME gap.
Statistically, since 2018, with the increasing interest in gaps, 90% of gaps in the 1-day time frame greater than $1,000 have eventually been filled (ignore anything below the 1D time frame).
The tricky part with CME gaps is… pic.twitter.com/wJC2ih5U8M
-XForceGlobal (@XForceGlobal) <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/XForceGlobal/status/1871435676975247575?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw” rel=”nofollow”>December 24, 2024
However, the crypto analyst noted that it is difficult to predict the timing and method of filling CME's gaps.
“The tricky part about CME gaps is that their timing and method of filling them remains unpredictable,” XForceGlobal said in a post.
The cryptanalyst sees possible scenarios to fill the CME gaps. In one scenario, XForceGlobal suggests that it could come via a deep wave or wave 4 correction, taking bitcoin to the $77,000 to $80,000 level.
In another scenario,
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A market crash in January?
Egrag believes that market makers could use President-elect Donald Trump's upcoming inauguration to generate selling pressure on bitcoin, contributing to its imminent decline.
“Market makers are known for taking advantage of opportunities during crises. Expect a market crash on opening day (January 20, 2025). “This could be the perfect local top for a sell-off, which would likely leave many newcomers panicking,” the crypto analyst said.
Egrag outlined two scenarios that could develop from the current market condition, suggesting that in one scenario, bitcoin could pump to $120,000 and then experience a drop to the CME GAP before “resuming the bull run in 2025.”
In another possible scenario, the crypto analyst said btc could fall to the CME gap of $70,000 to $75,000 before the bull run resumes.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
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