NEWSLETTER
The current bitcoin (btc) bears market, defined as a drop of 20% or more from the maximum of all time, is relatively weak in terms of magnitude and should only last 90 days, according to the market analyst and the author of Metcalfe's law as a model for bitcoin's valueTimothy Peterson.
Peter <a target="_blank" data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/nsquaredvalue/status/1903497459583553731″ rel=”null” target=”null” text=”null” title=”null”>compared The current recession of the 10 previous low markets, which occur approximately once a year, and said that only four bears markets have been worse than the price decrease in terms of duration, including 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024.
The analyst predicted that btc will not sink deeply below the price level of $ 50,000 due to underlying adoption trends. However, Peterson also argued that, according to the impulse, btc is unlikely to break below $ 80,000. The analyst added:
“There may be a slide in the next 30 days followed by a 20-40% demonstration at some point after April 15. You can see that on the lists around the 120th. This would probably be a sufficient headline to return weak hands to the market and boost bitcoin even more.”
crypto Markets experienced a strong recession after the tariffs of the president of the United States Trump about several US commercial partners, which caused counter-tarifas in US exports, which caused fears of prolonged commercial war.
Comparison of each bears market since 2025. Source: <a target="_blank" data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/nsquaredvalue/status/1903497459583553731″ rel=”nofollow noopener” target=”_blank” text=”null” title=”https://x.com/nsquaredvalue/status/1903497459583553731″>Timothy Peterson
Related: Is bitcoin at $ 65K? Merchants explain why they are still bearish
Investors flee from risk assets for commercial war fears
The appetite of investors for speculative assets is decreasing due to the current trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Hot Glassnode Supply metricA btc measure owned for a week or less, decreased from 5.9% in the middle of the historic Toro rally in November 2024 to only 2.3% to March 20.
According to Nansen's research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard, cryptography markets will face commercial warfare pressures until April 2025, when international negotiations could potentially reduce or disseminate commercial tariffs completely.
A recent analysis of Cryptoquant also shows that most retail merchants are already invested in btc, providing hope that a large avalanche of retail merchants injecting a new capital into the markets and pushes the highest prices in the short term.
The commercial war also questioned the narrative of bitcoin's safe refuge, since the price of decentralized asset collapsed over the features of rates along with other risks and speculative assets.
Magazine: The bitcoiners are 'all in' in Trump from bitcoin '24, but it is getting risky
This article does not contain advice or investment recommendations. Each investment and trade movement implies risk, and readers must carry out their own investigation by making a decision.
