A trending move in an asset class attracts traders, while boring price action keeps investors on the sidelines. bitcoin (btc) has largely been stuck in a range for the past few months, which could be one of the reasons for the drop in spot volumes. Bloomberg reported on October 11 that Coinbase’s spot trading volume plunged 52% in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the third quarter of 2022.
While the short term remains uncertain, traders should be vigilant because long consolidations are usually followed by explosive price action. The only problem is that it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout with certainty. Considering that the bulls have not allowed bitcoin to fall back below $25,000 in recent months, the probability of a bullish breakout increases.
Investment legend Paul Tudor Jones said in a recent interview on CNBC that he is not bullish on stock markets because he believes an escalation in the conflict between Israel and Hamas may lead to risk-averse sentiment. If that happens, it will be bullish for gold and bitcoin, Jones added.
Will the bears sink bitcoin below immediate support and could that cause a higher? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
bitcoin price analysis
bitcoin broke above the 20-day exponential moving average ($27,148) on October 11, but the bears were unable to lower the price below the 50-day simple moving average ($26,634).
The bulls successfully defended the 50-day SMA on October 11 and 12, but are struggling to initiate a bounce. This suggests a lack of demand at higher levels.
Next, the bears will try to sink the price below the 50-day SMA and emerge victorious. If this level gives way, the btc/USDT pair could retest the strong support at $26,000. This level is likely to witness aggressive buying by the bulls.
A rally above the 20-day EMA will be the first sign of strength. Then, the pair could rise towards the stiff overhead resistance of $28,143. This is an important level to pay attention to because a close above it could signal the start of a short-term bullish move.
Ether Price Analysis
Ether (eth) fell to the critical support of $1,531 on October 12, but a minor positive is that the bulls successfully held this level.
The RSI is showing signs of positive divergence, indicating that the bearish momentum may be weakening. The bulls will try to push the price to the moving averages, where the bears are likely to mount a strong defense again.
If the price falls sharply from the 20-day EMA ($1,606), it will suggest that the bears are still in control. The eth/USDT pair could then break down below $1,531 and begin its decline towards $1,368.
If the bulls want to avoid the decline, they will have to lift the price above the moving averages. The pair could then rise to $1,746, where the bulls could again face heavy selling from the bears.
BNB Price Analysis
BNB (BNB) fell to the strong support at $203, but the long tail of the candle shows that the bulls are protecting the level strongly.
The bulls will have to quickly push the price above the moving averages and the downtrend line to signal that the bears may be losing control. The BNB/USDT pair could then start a bullish move to $235 and then $250.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the moving averages, it will indicate that each small increase is being sold. A break below the $203 support will complete a descending triangle pattern, which could initiate a move lower to $183.
XRP Price Analysis
XRP (XRP) fell below the uptrend line on October 11, indicating that bullish pressure is reducing. The drop suggests that the price will continue to fluctuate between $0.41 and $0.56 for a while longer.
There is support at $0.46, but if it breaks, the XRP/USDT pair may fall to the important $0.41 level. The bulls are expected to aggressively buy this dip, which could keep the range-bound stock intact.
On the positive side, a breakout and close above the moving averages will be the first sign of strength. Then, buyers will make one more attempt to push the price towards the overhead resistance of $0.56. A break and close above this level will signal the start of a potential new uptrend.
Solana Price Analysis
Solana (SOL) fell below the 20-day EMA ($21.72) on October 12, indicating that the bears are maintaining their pressure.
Both moving averages have stabilized and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. The bears will try to strengthen their position by dragging the price below the 50-day SMA ($20.44). If they do, the SOL/USDT pair could fall to $17.33.
On the other hand, if the price rises and surpasses $22.50, it will tilt the short-term advantage in favor of the buyers. The pair could then rise to the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern.
Cardano Price Analysis
Cardano (ADA) has formed long tails on successive candles since October 9, but the bulls failed to initiate a recovery. This suggests a lack of demand at higher levels.
The ADA/USDT pair is near the $0.24 support and the RSI is showing signs of a positive divergence. This suggests that selling pressure is easing and a relief rally is possible. The first stop on the upside is likely to be the moving averages. If this resistance is crossed, the pair may reach $0.27 and then $0.28.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price continues to decline and falls below $0.24, it will indicate that the bears are in no mood to give in. That could clear the way for a drop to $0.22 and eventually $0.20.
Dogecoin Price Analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been trading below the $0.06 support since October 9, suggesting that markets have accepted the lower levels.
The bears will try to lower the price to the vital support of $0.055. This level is likely to witness heavy buying by the bulls. If the price bounces off this level, the DOGE/USDT pair may consolidate between $0.055 and $0.06 for some time.
The descending moving averages and the RSI near the oversold zone indicate that the bears have the upper hand. If the bulls want to make a comeback, they will have to quickly push the price above the moving averages. That could start a recovery to $0.07.
Related: Why is the price of bitcoin stagnant?
Toncoin Price Analysis
Toncoin (TON) has been in a corrective phase for the past few days. Profit booking by traders took the price below the 50-day SMA ($1.98) on October 12.
The bulls are trying to reclaim the level and get the price back above the moving averages over the next few days. If they manage to do so, it will indicate that the break below the 50-day SMA may have been a bearish trap. That could open the doors to a possible rise to $2.31.
Instead, if the TON/USDT pair turns down from the moving averages, it will suggest that sentiment has turned negative and all relief rallies are being sold. That will increase the risk of a drop to $1.60.
Polka dot price analysis
Polkadot (DOT) continued its decline in recent days and approached the $3.50 target on October 12. This level is likely to act as solid support.
On the way up, the 20-day EMA ($3.95) is the key level to pay attention to. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that traders are selling on relief rallies. That could improve prospects for a drop below $3.50.
On the contrary, if the bulls push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the markets have rejected the lower levels. This can trap aggressive bears, resulting in a brief squeeze towards the downtrend line.
Polygon price analysis
Polygon (MATIC) continues to weaken towards the critical support at $0.49, indicating that the bulls are not risking buying at higher levels.
In a range, traders typically buy near support and sell near resistance. In this case, the bulls are likely to vigorously buy dips to $0.49. If the price rises strongly from this level, the MATIC/USDT pair may reach the moving averages.
If the price drops sharply from the moving averages, the probability of a break below $0.49 will increase. If that happens, the pair could fall to $0.45.
Conversely, a rally above the moving averages will indicate that the range-bound action may extend for a few more days.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
