According to @RiggsBTC on Coming to X on December 6th, @RiggsBTC he claimed that bitcoin's current bull run, which began in late 2022 when prices fell to as low as $15,000, marks the beginning of a “supercycle,” a period in which btc will rally aggressively, extending gains.
Will bitcoin reach $9 million in 2 years?
The asset manager attributes this potential rally to multiple factors. At the top of the list is the impending supply shock, considering the expected bitcoin halving scheduled for early April 2021. @RiggsBTC noted that with less than 21 million btc in circulation, the supply reduction and Sustained demand could support bitcoin, fueling aggressive bulls.
To contextualize the potential magnitude of this expected growth, @RiggsBTC estimates that only if 5% of global wealth, conservatively estimated at over $1 trillion, which translates to $50 trillion, is exposed to limited btc in circulation, there will be more advantages.
From the analyst's point of view, there will only be around 5 million btc, most of which comes from “weak hands” selling to “nation-states and institutions.” This change will be the basis for a breakthrough that will see bitcoin reach $9 million “within 24 months.”
Pierre Rochard, vice president of research at Riot Platforms, echoed @RiggsBTC sentiment, highlighting favorable macroeconomic conditions that will likely boost bitcoin further. Rochard notes that the U.S. government spends $6 trillion, which includes $4 trillion in taxes, $2 trillion in loans, and $1 trillion in interest payments on its $33 trillion debt.
While the government spends huge sums of money on interest payments alone, bitcoin's market capitalization remains below $1 trillion. According to CoinMarketCap, btc had a bitcoin/” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>Market cover of 860 billion dollars when I wrote on December 6.
Eyes on the SEC and bitcoin ETFs
Beyond the bitcoin halving event and supporting macroeconomic factors, the community is also looking to regulators. In early December 2023, the crypto community expects the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve the first batch of bitcoin spot ETFs.
This product will provide institutional investors with an avenue to gain exposure to bitcoin in a regulated environment, which could trigger a wave of capital. Since October, expectations of a spot bitcoin ETF in the United States have supported prices.
Still, it remains to be seen how the market will react once the SEC clears this derivative. In the past, the approval of key crypto derivatives products, for example the first bitcoin futures product in the United States in December 2018, marked cyclical peaks. Then prices plummeted, falling below $20,000.
Featured image from Canva, TradingView chart
