Popular Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has reduced the possibility of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) denying the launch of the bitcoin spot ETF to 5%. This latest forecast comes as cryptocurrency enthusiasts around the world anticipate a large-scale approval of several bitcoin spot ETF proposals by the SEC on Wednesday, January 10.
Why bitcoin Spot ETF Approval Looks Almost Certain: Bloomberg Analysts Weigh In
In October, Eric Balchunas and fellow Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart foretold that there is a 90% chance that ARK Invest and 21 stocks will receive approval for their joint bitcoin spot ETF offering on January 10, which marked the final deadline for the SEC's response to their request.
However, in a recent x publication On January 6, Balchunas raised the probability of this green light to a staggering 95% after stating that there was only a 5% chance that the SEC would reject the ARK/21 ETF offering in the coming days.
Well said, although I'd probably go with 5% right now. But you have to leave a small window open for these things.
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 6, 2024
This new prediction is based on the implausibility of all scenarios, which could represent a possible delay or non-approval of the ARK/21 shares bitcoin spot ETF application. In a previous X post on January 6, James Seyffart had listed these scenarios starting with ARK/21 stock spontaneously withdrawing its ETF proposal from the SEC, which he said was highly unlikely.
Another scenario is that the SEC discovers new reasons to reject the launch of a spot crypto ETF, which would result in a protracted court battle between the US regulator and ARK/21Shares, a situation that Seyffart believes the SEC would prefer to avoid, especially after of its recent heavy legal loss against Grayscale Investment.
The latest event that the Bloomberg analyst believes could prevent the approval of the ARK/21 Shares ETF offering is a direct intervention by the US Presidency, another scenario that seems remotely possible.
D-day is approaching
The importance of the ARK/21 Shares joint offering to the bitcoin spot ETF saga revolves around the final deadline for an SEC response, which is the first of all. Now, it is believed that the SEC will prefer to approve multiple bitcoin spot ETF applications at once, regardless of their respective final deadline, similar to how it did with Ether futures ETFs in August.
This belief is supported by the bitcoin-etf/” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>discussions between the US regulator and several applicants in recent weeks, leading to modifications to the respective proposals, indicating the preparation of an incoming approval.
At the time of writing, the target date remains January 10, and cryptocurrency enthusiasts are very excited about the potential bullish effects of a spot ETF on the price of bitcoin throughout the year. Meanwhile, bitcoin continues to trade at $44,050, having gained 4.50% in the last week.
btc trading at $44,038.02 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT chart on Tradingview.com
Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
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