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bitcoin could skyrocket to $180,000 in 2025 if key leading cycle indicators remain muted, according to Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck. talking to podcast Host Natalie Brunell, Sigel described a clear four-year pattern in bitcoin price action that he believes has persisted through multiple market cycles.
Why $180,000 per bitcoin seems plausible
Sigel explained that bitcoin tends to outperform almost all other asset classes for three years of each four-year halving cycle, followed by a deep correction in the fourth year. Referring to a drawdown that typically ranges between 60% and 80%, Sigel said this drawdown often comes about two years after the btc halving event.
Since bitcoin's most recent halving took place in April 2024, Sigel sees 2024 and 2025 as potentially strong years. “That down year is usually the second year after the halving,” Sigel explained. “The bitcoin halving occurred in April of this year. So 2024 (will be a) strong year, 2025 should be a strong year. “I think 2026, unless something changes, would be a bad year.”
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Based on historical data, he recalled the smallest appreciation of previous bitcoin cycles, which was approximately 2,000%. Even if that figure is halved to 1,000%, Sigel noted that bitcoin could go from a low of around $18,000 to a high of $180,000 in the current cycle. “So I see a rise to $180,000 this cycle, and I think that's likely to happen next year,” Sigel added.
He also emphasized that bitcoin's volatility means the price could exceed or fall short of that number, but that $180,000 represents a plausible target for 2024 if the pattern holds and no major “red light” indicators appear.
Sigel broke down what he considers the most important top signals for traders to watch. The first has to do with derivatives funding rates: If the annualized cost of holding bullish bitcoin positions in leveraged markets exceeds 10% for more than a couple of months, Sigel considers it a red flag.
“Some of those indicators include financing rates. “When bitcoin's funding rate exceeds 10% for more than a couple of months, that tends to be a red light,” Sigel warned, explaining that recent market activity restored high funding rates: “The failure (of last week) also removed that. So funding rates are not really in the red.”
The second is the level of unrealized profits on the blockchain, where on-chain analysis can reveal whether the cost base of market participants is so low that significant profit taking could soon create selling pressure. “We're not seeing scary amounts of unrealized gains (yet),” Sigel noted.
Finally, he said anecdotal evidence of widespread retail leverage or speculation could also raise warning lights. He explained that if all of these risk indicators aligned at a certain price (for example, if bitcoin hit $150,000 and these metrics pointed to a market high), he would be cautious. However, he said that if the price were to reach around $180,000 without those signals appearing, there could still be room for further appreciation.
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“If we hit $180,000 and none of those lights are blinking, maybe we'll let it run. “If all those lights are flashing and the price is $150,000, I’m not going to wait,” Sigel added.
Predictions of the next btc cycle
He also explored bitcoin's long-term growth potential by comparing it to the market capitalization of gold. Because about half of the gold supply is used for industrial and jewelry purposes, he reasoned that the other half can be compared more directly to bitcoin's function as an investment and store of value.
If bitcoin were to reach a valuation comparable to half the market capitalization of gold, Sigel believes the price could trend towards approximately $450,000 per coin over the course of the next cycle.
From an even more forward-looking perspective, he outlined VanEck's long-term model in which global central banks could eventually hold bitcoin as part of their reserves, if only with a 2% weighting. Given that gold makes up around 18% of central bank reserves worldwide, Sigel's assumption is that bitcoin's share would be much smaller in comparison.
He also factored in the prospect that bitcoin could one day serve as a settlement currency for global trade, potentially between emerging economic alliances such as the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), which could significantly boost its valuation. . higher. In VanEck's calculations, this scenario could put bitcoin at $3 million per coin by 2050:
“We also assume that bitcoin is used as a settlement currency for global trade, most likely between the BRICS countries. “We will reach three million dollars per currency by 2050, which would be equivalent to a compound annual growth rate of approximately 16%.”
At the time of publication, btc was trading at $107,219.
Featured Image from YouTube/Natalie Brunell, Chart from TradingView.com
