Bitcoin under threat? The analyst explores two penetrate swan scenarios to see

As bitcoin (btc) stabilizes above the critical support level of $ 80,000 after a significant slow Bear marketOr the bullish feeling is still intact?

M2 Money Servy and bitcoin Price

Doctor benefit <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/DrProfitCrypto/status/1903090602557759783″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>emphasized The crucial role of liquidity in the current market of the market. While many celebrate the increase in monetary offer M2, a key economic indicator, there is a vital need to understand the moment of its effects.

Historically, M2 has shown a strong correlation with bitcoin's price movements. Unlike stock markets, which generally react to M2 expansions after a delay of approximately six months, bitcoin tends to respond more quickly, although not instantly.

According to the analyst, the “erroneous idea” that the printing of money leads to the immediate subswings of the market, since there are multiple factors at stake, including macroeconomic conditions.

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The decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) with respect to interest rates They are particularly influential. Although official data suggests that inflation is decreasing, underlying realities, such as the influence of OPEC on oil prices, complicate perspectives.

In the context of the increase of M2, the doctor's gain predicts that bitcoin's upward trend could be resumed around May or June, but anticipates a period of lateral movement and a possible short -term bearish pressure that leads to that point. He warns that many who are currently optimistic can change to a bearish posture as the market evolves.

In the report, DCO benefit highlights the importance of the weekly EMA50, a critical mobile average that refers as the “gold line”, which bitcoin has respected in recent Price action. After bouncing in this line at $ 76,000, the cryptocurrency reached $ 87.4K in advance, which caused several short positions.

Long -term bullish perspective with short -term caution

Looking towards the future, Doctor Profit's strategy implies aiming at a possible fall to the area from $ 70,000 to $ 74,000. This region is crucial; If bitcoin simply gets into him, but then closes strongly above the gold line, he plans to take long positions.

The doctor's benefit maintains a scope long -term perspectiveWaiting for a resumption of the bull administered in mid -2024, with price objectives ranging from $ 120,000 to $ 140,000. It remains cautious, has important cash reserves and expanding short positions in advance of market fluctuations.

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Dr. Benefit describes two bearish scenarios that operators should consider: a manageable fall for the range of $ 70,000 to $ 74,000 and the most severe “Black Swan” event that could take prices to the region of $ 50,000. While trusting a rebound to the superior objective, advises the preparation for both scenarios.

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At the time of writing, btc is around $ 84,000, registering losses of 3.5% and 12% in the period of fourteen and thirty days, respectively.

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