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bitcoin (btc) has surpassed the $65,000 mark, renewing traders' optimism for an “Uptober” rally that could extend the digital asset's bullish momentum.
Is the bitcoin “Uptober” Rally Finally Here?
In the early hours of October 15, bitcoin briefly crossed $66,000 before retreating to $65,964 at the time of writing. In the last 24 hours, btc has gained 1.4%.
According to a report According to cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, bitcoin's decisive move past the crucial $63,000 resistance level, combined with encouraging on-chain metrics, points towards a possible further bullish move.
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The report mentions that bitcoin's realized price of unspent transaction production age bands (UTXO) is a “fundamental on-chain metric for measuring bitcoin market dynamics.”
For the uninitiated, bitcoin UTXO age bands refer to the value that different groups of btc last moved to, based on the length of their holding. Basically, it helps track the average purchase price across various age groups of btc holders, indicating the market sentiment and profitability of specific cohorts.
In particular, the average realized prices for short-term (3-6 months) and medium-term (6-12 months) holders have historically been key support or resistance levels. The price of the short-term fork is around $63,000, while the price of the medium-term fork is $55,000.
When bitcoin trades below the average purchase price of these groups, it often indicates a bearish trend. Conversely, a move above these levels may indicate bullish momentum.
Since btc has broken through the $63,000 resistance, more gains could be in the offing. However, failing to close above this level could have triggered a possible drop towards $55,000.
Market shows strong appetite for digital assets
The report highlights btc's weak price action on October 10, when it fell to $58,943 due to a lack of aggressive buying in the spot market. According to the report, the majority of the sales originated from Coinbase.
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The report mentions the Coinbase Premium Gap Indicator (CPGI), a metric that shows the difference between the btc-dollar pair on Coinbase versus other major centralized exchanges.
The CPGI declined 100 points as the btc price fell below $59,000. The report notes that over the past year, every time the CPGI fell below 50 points, the btc price witnessed a subsequent recovery. The report adds:
bitcoin has been trading within a wide range for the past eight months. In case a bear market starts, selling usually occurs when the Coinbase premium turns negative. However, no such selling has been observed, suggesting that despite the fluctuations, the market remains relatively stable without widespread fear-driven disinvestment. This resilience could indicate underlying strength or balanced market sentiment that can guide future price movements.
This analysis aligns with a separate report from crypto firm QCP Capital, which noted That the shallow sell-off in the cryptocurrency market following geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel indicates sustained demand for risk assets.
In related news, btc bulls will be relieved to know that defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox has delayed its repayment until October 2025, which could relieve pressure on spot sales.
However, some analysts warn that btc may face price capitulation due to on-chain liquidity restriction. At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading at $65,964, up 1.4% in the last 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and Tradingview.com
