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According to analysts at Bernstein, bitcoin's recent rise above $65,000 is driven by the increasing odds of an election victory for Donald Trump.
“We believe that the recent bitcoin “Strength is being driven by the return of bitcoin’s correlation with Trump’s electoral odds,” Bernstein analysts said in an Oct. 15 note.
Donald Trump favorite to win election as MSTR seen as corporate btc index
The odds of former US President Trump winning the election currently stand at 56.5% on the decentralized betting platform. polymer market. Meanwhile, his political rival and current vice president of the United States, Kamala Harris, has a 43% chance, according to the platform's bettors. Trump also has the lead in five of the six swing states.
The Kalshi, regulated by the United States, shows that Trump also leads Harris. Odds on Trump currently stand at 55% after a 2% increase, while odds on Harris put her odds at 45% after a 1% decrease.
“We believe the strength of the bitcoin market is recent and reflects the current increase in Trump odds,” the Bernstein analysts wrote.
Donald Trump Poll Odds Impact crypto Fund Flows
According to CoinShares, Trump's rising odds have also had a positive impact on crypto fund flows in the past week. During the week of October 5-11, digital asset investment products recorded inflows of $407 million.
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Digital asset investment products recorded inflows of $407 million. twitter.com/hashtag/bitcoin?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#bitcoin recorded inflows totaling $419 million, while blockchain stock ETFs recorded one of the largest weekly inflows of the year, totaling $34 million.
Get our insights in our full report: https://t.co/3Bz2pA1HOQ pic.twitter.com/kvkSHAqIHo
—CoinShares (@CoinSharesCo) twitter.com/CoinSharesCo/status/1845833061390332334?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>October 14, 2024
CoinShares head of research James Butterfill believes btc's rise is not related to “better-than-expected economic data.” Instead, the increased odds that Trump, the pro-cryptocurrency Republican, will become president has resulted in an “immediate boost to tickets and prices.”
MSTR Price Is Also a Leading Indicator for bitcoin
Bernstein analysts also believe that MicroStrategy The MSTR stock price is like a leading indicator of the king of cryptocurrencies. This is after the company has accumulated 252,220 Bitcoins since 2020 and surpassed the flagship cryptocurrency this year.
Since the beginning of 2024, MSTR has gained 191%, more than three times the 55% increase btc experienced during the same period.
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