Bitcoin Struggles in Early October: Bullish Bounce Coming for BTC?

bitcoin (btc) has faced a rocky start to the historically bullish month of October, affected by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Despite this, bulls remain hopeful of a trend reversal at the end of the month.

bitcoin “Uptober” got off to a bumpy start

The leading digital asset by reported market capitalization is off to a tumultuous start to its most bullish month since 2013. The chart below shows how October has historically been the most bullish month for bitcoin, with an average return of 21.2%.

Yesterday, btc briefly fell below the critical $60,000 level before recovering to $61,179 at press time. During this swinging price movement, btc witnessed liquidations worth over $32 million, while eth liquidations were slightly above $18 million.

Over the past seven days, bitcoin has fallen 6.9%, while major altcoins have seen even larger losses. ethereum (eth) is down 11.2%, Solana (SOL) is down 10.9%, and BNB is down 9.9%.

According to data from CoinGlass, most of btc's price appreciation typically occurs in late October. The chart below illustrates that the first few days of October have historically been less favorable for btc prices.

Notably, October 1 has been positive for bitcoin only once since 2013, while October 2 has shown gains five out of eleven times. In contrast, later dates, such as October 28, have returned positive results nine out of eleven times, followed by October 20, which has had eight positive days out of eleven.

It is worth noting that bitcoin's most bearish month, September, closed with 7.29% gains this year, recording its best performance since 2013.

Multiple factors weigh on bitcoin price action

bitcoin experienced its fourth halving in April 2024, followed by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts in September, two events typically considered bullish for btc's price outlook.

However, increasing geopolitical escalations have overshadowed these positive developments and the uncertainty surrounding the results of the closely contested US presidential election in November 2024.

That said, some crypto analysts are confident that bitcoin will rally later this year. For example, an analyst at Standard Chartered go btc falling below $60,000 is a tremendous buying opportunity.

Similarly, Markus Thielen of 10x Research foresees “Exceptionally high” chances of a cryptocurrency rally in Q4 2024. Some of the factors for this prediction are declining bitcoin dominance and rising ethereum gas fees.

By contrast, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes think that interest rate cuts could lead to a short-term market decline. btc is trading at $61,179 at press time, up 2.2% in the last 24 hours.

Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from Coinglass.com and TradingView.com