bitcoin is off to a volatile start through 2025, with the price action reflecting both optimism and caution among investors. After reaching the $102,000 mark earlier this month, btc faced a sharp decline, testing critical support at $92,000. Despite the selling pressure, bitcoin held firm above this key level and is now showing signs of recovery, currently rising as market sentiment gradually improves.
Leading analyst Axel Adler recently shared his thoughts on x, shedding light on the current market dynamics. Adler highlighted that the ratio of market value to realized value (MVRV) for short-term holders (STH) has fallen to its average value. This metric is often used to measure market conditions and the profitability of recent buyers. A drop in median values suggests a cooling period, providing an opportunity for stabilization and potential growth in the near term.
As bitcoin navigates this choppy phase, investors remain cautious but optimistic, eyeing key levels that could signal a more decisive trend. The next few weeks will be pivotal as btc attempts to regain higher ground and confirm its long-term bullish structure. It remains to be seen whether the cryptocurrency will be able to maintain its upward momentum or face further consolidation, making this a critical period for the market leader.
bitcoin needs a bullish trigger
bitcoin continues to show resilience despite continued investor concerns and a volatile start to the year. While fears of a deeper correction remain, market focus is shifting toward bitcoin's broader potential in 2025. Analysts and long-term holders view current price levels as a consolidation phase, setting the stage for a more significant move as the year progresses.
Adler recently <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/AxelAdlerJr/status/1877702659332804633″ target=”_blank” rel=”noopener nofollow”>shared valuable insights about xemphasizing the importance of current market dynamics. According to Adler, the ratio of market value to realized value (MVRV) for short-term holders (STH) has fallen to its average values. This indicates that short-term holders are close to their breakeven point, reducing immediate selling pressure and potentially stabilizing the market.
Adler also highlighted that the realized price of STH currently stands at $86,800. With continued demand, this metric could rise to $90,000 by the time of President Trump's inauguration. Adler suggests that if the new administration delivers on even a fraction of its campaign promises, it could act as a major bullish catalyst for bitcoin. Historical trends indicate that political and economic changes often drive renewed investor interest in bitcoin, strengthening its position as a hedge against uncertainty.
Despite the current market sentiment, these factors suggest a solid foundation for a bullish recovery. Investors watching the interplay between realized pricing based on demand and macroeconomic triggers could find that bitcoin is well-positioned for growth in the coming months. Next steps will depend on whether btc can hold critical support levels and build momentum for a breakout to new all-time highs.
Price Action: Technical Levels
bitcoin is trading at $94,200, trying to regain momentum by surpassing the $95,000 level. While buyers are showing some resistance, the price continues to struggle against short-term resistance, particularly at the $95,000 and $98,000 levels. A successful break above these zones could signal renewed bullish momentum, but for now, the market appears primed for further consolidation.
The current price action suggests that bitcoin may spend some time in a sideways movement, reflecting an accumulation or indecision phase. This type of consolidation is not uncommon after major price increases or corrections as market participants reevaluate their positions. In the coming days or even weeks, bitcoin could trade within a tight range, allowing for a buildup of momentum before the next major move.
Despite the ongoing consolidation, the $100,000 level remains the key psychological and technical target for the bulls. Recovering and holding above this mark would reinforce the broader bullish structure and would likely trigger a wave of renewed interest and investment. Until then, holding the $92,000 support and gradually building strength towards $95,000 and $98,000 will be critical for bitcoin to regain its upward trajectory and set the stage for the next leg of the bull cycle.
Featured image of Dall-E, TradingView chart
