bitcoin (btc) should end 2023 as it began, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode said, as October gains close to 30%.
In the latest edition of his weekly newsletter, “The chain week”, published on October 24, the researchers argued that last week “lays the foundation” for an upward trend in the price of btc.
btc price “convincingly” surpasses resistance levels
By reaching $35,200 this week, bitcoin eclipsed several key trend lines, which had previously acted as support for months.
These included several moving averages (MAs), including the 200-week simple MA at $28,400, the classic “bear market” support line.
“A cluster of long-term price simple moving averages sits around $28,000 and has provided resistance to the market throughout September and October,” Glassnode noted.
“After a month in which the market rose, bulls found enough strength this week to convincingly break above the 111-day, 200-day, and 200-week averages.”
By doing so, the profitability of several groups of investors improved considerably. The so-called cost base for speculators and newcomers to the market is also close to $28,000.
“The short-term holder (STH) cost basis is also now in the rearview mirror at $28,000, putting the average recent investor at an average gain of +20%,” “The Week On-Chain” continued.
The researchers uploaded a graph of the ratio of market value to short-term holder realized value (STH-MVRV), which tracks the profitability of STH coins. They noted that even before the October hike, no major capitulatory behavior was seen.
“We can see cases in 2021-22 where STH-MVRV reached relatively deep corrections of -20% or more,” they explained.
“While the August sell-off hit a low of -10%, it is noteworthy how shallow this MVRV drop is in comparison, suggesting that the recent correction found notable support, being a precursor to this week’s rally.” .
bitcoin “lays the foundation” for the green year
As Cointelegraph reported, the presence of STH entities versus their experienced counterparts, long-term holders (LTH), is now historically low.
Related: bitcoin pricing model expects $45,000 ‘phase’ to arrive in November
Despite facing their own profitability issues, LTHs now hold more than three-quarters of the available btc supply for the first time.
Its cost base is lower, closer to $20,000, and while some believe bitcoin could still return to that area, Glassnode is optimistic about how the year will end.
“A significant proportion of supply and investors are now above the average equilibrium price, around $28,000,” he concluded.
“This sets the stage for a resumption of the 2023 uptrend. At the very least, the market has crossed several key levels where aggregate investor psychology is likely anchored, making it important to keep an eye on developments.” following weeks.”
By data According to on-chain monitoring resource CoinGlass, btc/USD is currently up 26% this month; by October standards, it’s still relatively modest.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
