Bitcoin ready to claim $ 90,000, according to derivative metrics

bitcoin (btc) could not maintain levels exceeding $ 85,000 on March 14, despite a gain of 1.9% in the S&P 500 index. More importantly, it has passed more than a week since bitcoin traded for the last time to $ 90,000, which led merchants to question whether the upward market has finished and how the long -term sale pressure will persist.

bitcoin Base Rebounds Rate of GUBBER LEVELS

From a derivative perspective, bitcoin metrics have shown resilience despite a 30% drop since their historical maximum of $ 109,354 on January 20. The bitcoin base rate, which measures the premium of monthly contracts in the spot markets, has recovered at healthy levels after briefly pointing out the bearish feeling on March 13.

Operators generally require an annualized premium from 5% to 10% to compensate for longer settlement periods. A base rate below this threshold indicates a weak demand for leverage buyers. While the current 5% rate is lower than 8% registered two weeks ago, it remains within the neutral territory.

Central banks will eventually increase the price of btc

bitcoin Price Action has closely tracked the S&P 500, suggesting that the factors that promote investor risk aversion may not be directly linked to the upper cryptocurrency.

However, this also challenges bitcoin's idea as a non -correlated asset, since its price behavior has been more closely aligned with traditional markets, at least in the short term.

If the price of bitcoin continues to depend largely on the stock market, which is under pressure due to the fears of an economic recession, investors are likely to continue reducing exposure to risk assets and change towards short -term bonds for safety.

However, the central banks are expected to implement stimulus measures to avoid a recession, and it is likely that scarce assets such as bitcoin will exceed as a result.

According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, markets have a price lower than 40% probabilities of interest rates in the US.

However, bitcoin should recover the level of $ 90,000 as soon as the S&P 500 eliminates some of its recent losses of 10%. But in the worst case, the sale of panic of risk assets could continue.

Under such conditions, btc is likely to remain low performance in the coming months, especially if the funds quoted in the stock market (ETF) Spot of bitcoin continue to experience significant and sustained net exits.

bitcoin derivatives do not show signs of stress

Professional merchants are not actively using bitcoin options for coverage, as evidenced by 25% of the Delta bias metric. This implies that few market participants expect the price of btc to test the level of $ 76,900 in the short term.

The upward feeling generally leads to the options to put (sell) trade with a discount of 6% or more. On the contrary, the bearish periods make the indicator increase to a 6%premium, as seen briefly on March 10 and March 12. However, 25% of Delta Skew has recently remained within the neutral range, reflecting a healthy derivative market.

To better measure the feeling of the merchant, it is important to examine the margin markets of btc. Unlike derivative contracts, which are always balanced between the lengths (buyers) and shorts (vendors), margin markets allow merchants to borrow Stablecoins to buy bitcoin Spot. Similarly, bear merchants can borrow btc to open short positions, betting on a price drop.

The bitcoin Long-Short margin ratio in OKX shows long that overcome the shorts for 18 times. Historically, excessive trust has driven this proportion above 40 times, while the levels of less than five times that the lengths favor are seen as bassists. The current relationship reflects the feeling on January 30, when bitcoin quoted above $ 100,000.

There are no signs of stress or solidity in bitcoin derivatives and margin markets, which is reassuring, especially after more than $ 920 million were settled in studies of futures leverage in the seven days that end on March 13.

Therefore, as the recession is risky, it is likely that the price of bitcoin claims the level of $ 90,000 in the coming weeks, given the resilience in the feeling of investors.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The points of view, the thoughts and opinions expressed here are alone of the author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the opinions and opinions of Cointelegraph.