Bitcoin price will reach $170,000 in 2025

bitcoin price is trading at $27,100 at the time of writing, marking a 60% decline from its all-time high of $69,000 in 2021. As anticipation grows for the next bull market, questions are being raised about the possible bitcoin future prices.

While most predictions are speculative, one analyst has devised a model that leverages historical data to forecast potential highs and lows in the price of bitcoin over time.

bitcoin price in previous cycles

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bitcoin's prices changes since 2011. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView

Since its inception, bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable growth, substantially rewarding early long-term investors. This price growth can be observed by measuring bitcoin prices from the lows to the highs and between the highs of successive bull markets.

In 2011, the high was $33, followed by a high of $1,240 in 2013, reflecting a 3,800% increase between peaks. Subsequent peaks in 2017 and 2021 were $20,000 and $69,000, representing increases of 1,600% and 350%, respectively. Comparable levels of increase are also seen when examining the lows of different cycles.

Notably, relative growth between cycles has slowed, possibly due to bitcoin‘s increasing market capitalization, requiring more substantial capital to influence its price. This declining growth aligns with a mathematical pattern known as logarithmic regression.

Logarithmic regression

An analyst has devised several logarithmic curves on the bitcoin chart to forecast bitcoin‘s potential highs and lows, using time as the only input. These models can help investors by offering an easy way to view potential market trends and make proactive plans in the unpredictable world of cryptocurrencies.

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Chart of bitcoin's price in a channel of logistic regression curves. Source: @BawdyAnarchist_ on X

bitcoin highs and lows usually occur every four years, allowing potential bitcoin prices to be predicted in the coming cycles based on the logarithmic regression model.

bitcoin Price Projections

• 2025-2026: The price of bitcoin may peak in the third or fourth quarter of 2025, between $170,000 and $200,000, before bottoming out around $70,000 the following year.
• 2029-2030: bitcoin price may reach a high of $410,000 to $440,000 and bottom out the following year at around $230,000.
• 2033-2034: bitcoin price may reach a high of between $750,000 and $800,000 and bottom out around $700,000 the following year.

Final thoughts

While models like this offer insightful projections of possible future bitcoin prices, it is important to recognize their limitations and the need for regular updates with new data. Numerous external factors, including, but not limited to, regulatory changes, technological advances and macroeconomic conditions, could significantly affect the accuracy of the model.

Furthermore, the unprecedented nature of bitcoin‘s trajectory, which has never experienced a recessionary environment, implies potential susceptibility to more substantial declines than models could predict. Predictions should be considered cautiously with broader market analysis and trends, as with any financial model.