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bitcoin price has dropped a fraction over the past day to trade at $40,012 as of 5:10 a.m. EST, with trading volume down 32%.
Despite the drop, btc price regaining the psychological level of $40,000 is no easy task, especially considering the broader market volatility amid the ongoing Grayscale bitcoin Trust (GBTC) swaps.
Short-term volatility while GBTC resolves.
However, they have a lot of coins.
The downloading of many of them as trades is in full swing.
I'm surprised you didn't mention E.Warren's unenforceable cryptocurrency bill that effectively shuts down crypto in the US…— Mauro Zallocco (@mauro_zallocco) January 18, 2024
Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says bitcoin price risks falling to $30,000 due to “supercharged” inflation. He attributed the bearish outlook in the btc market to the upcoming turbulence in the US and global economy.
“Shout or talk?” It's an essay about why I think $btc The drop points to a mini financial crisis for TradFi, and it will bottom out in the $30,000 to $35,000 range.https://t.co/uwiLscKwzW pic.twitter.com/zRpUcE6TIz
—Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) January 23, 2024
bitcoin Price Could Find Support Between $30,000 and $35,000, Hayes Says
In the first quarter of 2024, the price of bitcoin will encounter multiple obstacles that could present themselves as catalysts to the downside, Hayes said. Among them:
- The Red Sea conflict between the United States and the Houthis and its impact on global shipping
- Rising shipping costs “could cause inflation to rise in the third and fourth quarters of this year,” Hayes said, attributing it to weather and geopolitics.
- The race for the US presidential elections
- Federal Reserve policy
“A 30% correction may be in the works from the ETF's approval high of $48,000, or $33,600,” he said. His prediction places initial support between $30,000 and $35,000, a stance that inspired his $35,000 strike on March 29, 2024.
Additionally, Hayes indicates in the blog that any level below the $35,000 mark would be a good entry point for investors looking to buy the dip.
As a side note, it is worth mentioning that Ran Neuner, analyst and executive at crypto Banter, advised caution for investors looking to buy the dip. He said, “You're not going to hit the bottom and if you fail the race, you'll kick yourself!” The analyst added: “My theory is to start buying now. If we go down to $34k, buy all the way down. But don't miss the bomb!
The average “respectable” correction in a bull market is 30%.
We are already down 20% and there may be 10% left to go…
You're not going to reach the bottom and if you fail the climb you'll kick yourself!
My theory, start shopping now. If we go down to $34k, we buy until the end…
– Ran Neuner (@cryptomanran) January 23, 2024
bitcoin Price Outlook as Arthur Hayes Anticipates Correction to $30,000
bitcoin price is based on the support offered by the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at $39,459. The outlook for the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is deviating northwards, suggests that momentum is starting to pick up. If held, this momentum indicator could soon cross above the signal line (yellow band), executing a buy signal.
However, due to the fact that the RSI is still below the 50 midline, bitcoin price strength is low. This means that the bears have the advantage, accentuated by the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), which is below its signal line (orange band) and in negative territory. Adding credibility to the bearish outlook is the Awesome Oscillator (AO), which is also in negative territory, showing that the bears are dominating the btc market.
Further seller momentum could see bitcoin price miss the support offered by the 100-day SMA at $39,459, with a possible extension to the support at $37,800. A breakout and close below this level would remove the obstruction for btc to extend the decline towards the 200-day SMA at $33,623. If this level does not hold, btc could fall to the psychological level of $30,000, 25% below current levels.
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TradingView: btc/USDT 1 day
Reverse case
On the other hand, if the 100-day SMA holds as a support level, bitcoin price could rise. This could take btc above the 50-day SMA on its way to $42,934. Further up, it could break the $43,750 barricade before venturing into the ascending parallel channel.
In a highly bullish case, gains could see bitcoin price break the resistance confluence between the channel's midline and the critical $48,000 hurdle. This would put the psychological level of $50,000 within reach, 25% above the current price.
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