NEWSLETTER
bitcoin seems to be on the edge of a great price movement, and the data suggests that volatility could return to big. With the action of the price of bitcoin that stagnates in recent weeks, let's analyze the key indicators to understand the potential scale and address of the next movement.
Volatility
A great place to start is <a target="_blank" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/bitcoin-portfolio/bitcoin-volatility/”>bitcoin volatilitythat tracks the price action and volatility over time. When isolating last year's data and focusing on weekly volatility, we observe that the price of bitcoin has recently been relatively flat, around the range of $ 90,000. This prolonged lateral action has resulted in a dramatic fall in volatility, which means that bitcoin is experiencing part of its most stable price behavior in recent history.
<a target="_blank" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/bitcoin-portfolio/bitcoin-volatility/”>See live graphic
Historically, low volatility levels are rare and tend to be short. When observing the previous instances in which the volatility was so low, bitcoin continued with significant price movements:
A demonstration of $ 50,000 to a maximum of $ 74,000 at that time.
A drop from $ 66,000 to $ 55,000, followed by another increase at $ 68,000.
A period of stagnation around $ 60,000 before an increase of $ 100,000, its current maximum of all time.
Every time volatility fell to this level, bitcoin experienced a movement of at least 20-30%, if not more, in the following weeks.
Bollinger bands
To confirm this even more, the Width Indicator of the Bollinger bands, a tool that measures volatility when tracking the price deviation of a mobile average, also points out that bitcoin is rolled up for a large movement. Quarterly bands are currently at their most tight levels since 2012, which means that price compression is extremely. The last time this happened, bitcoin experienced an increase in prices of 200% in weeks.
Examining previous bollinger band configurations, we find: we find:
2018: A 50% drop from $ 6,000 to $ 3,000.
2020: A rupture of $ 9,000 to $ 12,000, establishing the final rally at $ 40,000.
2023: A phase of slow accumulation around $ 25,000 before a quick jump to $ 32,000.
Potential address
Understanding the direction is more difficult than predicting volatility, but we have clues. A strong indicator is the <a target="_blank" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/bitcoin-portfolio/btc-vs-dxy-yoy/”>American dollar strength index (DXY) YOYwhich has historically moved inversely to bitcoin. Recently, the DXY has gathered hard, but bitcoin has remained firm. This suggests that bitcoin has an underlying force, even in less favorable macro conditions.
<a target="_blank" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/bitcoin-portfolio/btc-vs-dxy-yoy/”>See live graphic
In addition, political factors can play a role. Historically, when Donald Trump assumed the position in 2017, the DXY decreased, and bitcoin saw a mass bull from $ 1,000 to $ 20,000. With a similar configuration that develops potentially in 2025, we can see a repetition of this dynamic.
ETF tickets
In addition, bitcoin <a target="_blank" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/bitcoin-portfolio/bitcoin-etf-daily-flows-usd/”>ETF ticketsA proxy of institutional demand has significantly slow down during this period of low volatility. This suggests that the main players are waiting for a confirmed break before adding to their positions. Once the volatility returns, we could see a renewed interest of the institutions, which leads to bitcoin even higher.
<a target="_blank" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/bitcoin-portfolio/bitcoin-etf-daily-flows-usd/”>See live graphic
Conclusion
bitcoin's volatility is found at one of its lowest levels in history, and such conditions have never lasted much. When the volatility is compressed so much, it prepares the scenario for an explosive movement. The data suggests that a break is imminent, but if bullish or bassist is inclined depends on macroeconomic conditions, the feeling of investors and institutional flows.
For a more detailed bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features such as live graphics, alerts of personalized indicators and in -depth industry reports, see bitcoin Pro Magazine.
Discharge of responsibility: This article is only for informative purposes and financial advice should not be considered. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
