Despite macroeconomic headwinds, bitcoin (btc) appears poised to create a new all-time high (ATH), charged by positive Q4 2024 seasonality.
New bitcoin ATH on the horizon?
On October 28, btc surpassed $71,000, generating optimism for a new ATH above the peak of $73,737 recorded in March of this year. Although btc has crossed the $70,000 threshold several times since then, it has yet to establish a new ATH.
According to a recent report According to cryptocurrency trading platform Bitfinex, bitcoin could be on track to hit a new ATH shortly after the US presidential election. bitcoin is often seen as a “Trump trade,” showing a strong correlation with Donald Trump's electoral odds.
For example, after a 6% drop last week, btc recovered all losses, coinciding with Trump's rising election odds on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform.
At the time of this writing, Trump directs with a 66.1% chance of winning against Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who stands at 33.9%. However, opinion polls show a close race, making the election outcome uncertain.
A possible Trump victory is shaking up the options market. According to the report, while short-term volatility may increase closer to the election results, btc's long-term bullish outlook remains intact. Says:
Options expiring on key dates close to elections command higher premiums, with implied volatility is expected to peak to 100 vol per day on November 8, just after election day, indicating that the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Regardless of the election outcome, short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, although we remain confident of longer-term price appreciation.
It is worth noting that btc fell as low as $52,756 in September. However, the leading digital asset rose almost 30% in October, inspiring some confidence in the “up” narrative.
Seasonality is on bitcoin's side
The report emphasizes that btc is positioned to benefit from “favorable seasonality in the fourth quarter.” Historically, the fourth quarter has been profitable for btc during the halving years, giving an average quarterly return of 31.34%.
The accumulation of call options expiring on December 27, especially at the $80,000 strike price, also reinforces btc's bullish outlook for Q4 2024. The report adds:
Like open interest options rises to new highsThe market is showing signs of positioning itself for a post-election surge, which could push bitcoin towards (and beyond) its all-time high of $73,666.
In similar news earlier this month, crypto research firm K33 Research commented That the latest positive developments in the FTX fiasco drive bitcoin's bullish Q4 narrative.
btc is trading at $71,110 at press time, up 3.1% in the last 24 hours and about 3.5% off its current ATH. If btc will continue It remains to be seen whether it will trend upwards for the rest of the quarter or face another rejection.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from Polymarket and TradingView.com
