The price of bitcoin can be unpredictable. But surprisingly, a specific model managed to predict the peak in 2021 above $60,000 already in 2019.
That same model now points to a maximum range close to $732,000 per coin. Is this a realistic estimate or pure hope? Let’s take a closer look at the model and find out.
Predict the latest bull market peak years in advance
In 2019, the go-to model for predicting future bitcoin prices was the now-debunked Plan B Stock-To-Flow (S2F) model. But around the same time, Greg Cipolaro tried to modify the S2F model with very precise results.
While the Plan B decision failed to push the price per btc above the projected $100,000 or more, Cipolaro’s model achieved a maximum range close to $60,000.
bitcoin hit $65,000 in April 2021 and then $68,000 in November 2021. If anything, BTCUSD beat its modest estimates, while the price fell well short of Plan B.
The model is based on post-halving supply reduction price targets. More important than what happened after the 2020 halving, however, is what Cipolaro’s model predicts after the next halving.
<img decoding="async" class="size-medium wp-image-265297 aligncenter" src="https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Bitcoin-Model-That-Predicted-a-Peak-of-60000-Now-Targets.png" alt="bitcoin Model $732K” width=”562″ height=”420″ srcset=”https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/ECBk66DXYAAen-m.png?w=618 618w, https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Bitcoin-Model-That-Predicted-a-Peak-of-60000-Now-Targets.png 562w” sizes=”(max-width: 562px) 100vw, 562px” data-recalc-dims=”1″/>
Could btc be worth over $700K? | Greg Cipolaro on Twitter
Could bitcoin hit $732,000 after the 2024 halving?
While it’s notable to get it right just once based on Cipolaro’s model, it could be a matter of luck or coincidence. If the model works again, the greater the chance it will find something meaningful.
Especially when the next projected target is $732,000 per btc. The target is much higher than most estimates out there, which point to between $100,000 and $200,000 per coin.
This represents approximately an increase of 1,800% from current levels. From the Black Thursday low of $3,800 to the 2021 peak of $68,000 represents a return of almost 1,600%, so such figures are not out of the realm of possibility for the king of cryptocurrencies.
During the year 2017 alone, bitcoin increased more than 2000%. And this occurred after the price had already appreciated more than 400%. Today, bitcoin is up 140% from the 2022 lows. Could the leading cryptocurrency by market cap add another 1,800% to that to reach the peak predicted by the model?
