Bitcoin Missed $54 Billion Opportunity By Neglecting Runes

There is no shortage of opinions when it comes to President Donald Trump's surprising Solana memecoin launch. The news and $TRUMP's astonishing performance in the days leading up to his inauguration have all but confirmed the dawn of a new era for our industry, emphatically stating that the rules are very different now. Amid all the drama, confusion, and hot takes, I'm left wondering: did Bitcoiners lose the bag?

Last year, at a block height of 840,000, a significant change to the bitcoin network went into effect –– and I'm not talking about the halving. The Runes meta-protocol was launched, allowing for burning and exchanging fungible tokens in bitcoin. This event was met with a record influx of volume and briefly sent the mempool to thousands of sats/vb. While the mania was short-lived, the existence of Runes and the initial signal of product-market fit demonstrated that there was appetite for bitcoin to attract significant capital for the token and memecoin use case, currently dominated by Solana, Base, and ethereum. bitcoin miners could also have benefited (beyond the brief spike) from rising transaction fees, and the urgency to reduce network congestion may have accelerated even faster progress toward realizing new solutions for bitcoin transactions. Faster and cheaper bitcoin. In short, more people would use and learn about bitcoin.

Instead, our community was bitterly divided on the issue. Some expressed concern and labeled supporters of Runes and tokens in bitcoin as “shitcoiners.” These criticisms often arise from a deep-seated desire to protect the integrity of bitcoin, a valid and important consideration. However, what if, instead of completely dismissing these emerging trends, we explored ways to channel this enthusiasm into a productive framework aligned with bitcoin? Honest exploration of pragmatic solutions to meet demand responsibly could uncover a path forward to satiate market demand for tokens in bitcoin. Perhaps we could have spent the last few months uniting around developing a more elegant user experience, improved functionality, and creative approaches to damage mitigation, applied up the chain. Instead, we have left these potential users in the hands of market competitors.

If we had adequately anticipated and prepared for the reality that bitcoin could attract the economic activity taking place on other chains, then we would have been better positioned to encourage yesterday's $8.5 billion $TRUMP transaction volume and nearly 1 million new users to do business in bitcoin instead of Solana. Many will say that “memecoins are not a business and that type of degeneration has no place in bitcoin” –– but that statement does not change the fact that by ignoring this economic phenomenon, we are giving up ground and effectively losing the opportunity to add users to bitcoin by the millions.

Our PTSD from rug-pullings, ICOs, and pump and dumps may be limiting our imagination. The truth is, no one knows where all this strange economic activity is headed or how it will end (if?). Many Bitcoiners believed that DOGE would have been dead a long time ago, however, it currently has a market capitalization of $54 billion and is entering its tenth year of existence. What we call “memecoins” may be becoming a fixture of the new emerging economy, whether you like them or not.

Without a doubt, the memecoin ecosystem has its pitfalls: scams, rug-pulling, and degenerate gambling, to name a few. But I think a reasonable argument could be made to suggest a deeper explanation of the market's appetite for placing unlimited bets on what participants find funny, provocative, witty, timely, useful, or popular. After all, much of our modern economy has been reduced to various forms of gaming with varying degrees of sophistication and abstraction. While the final vision of hyperbitcoinization aims to correct this, it seems realistic to expect a transition period and even some remnants of the fiat system in the most optimistic scenario. The fact is that starting today, you can buy $FARTCOIN or you can buy call options on $TESLA. Either way, you are placing a bet based on a number of (albeit very different) factors that have convinced you that your position is or will be shared by others who will follow your lead, causing your bet/investment to increase in value. .

I don't claim to know $TRUMP's roadmap and I recognize that there are many things that could go wrong. But I find it interesting that 80% of the “pre-mine” supply is blocked for up to three years, which seems to indicate a clear intention NOT to “pump and dump”. That seems to suggest a minimum 3 year commitment to generate value in some way.

Perhaps a new reality is emerging where a high-profile individual's personal memecoin is a reflection of their respective performance or popularity in the eyes of the masses, similar to the mechanics of a stock that fluctuates based on relevant news or the publication of a company's quarterly earnings. If this thesis holds true, the highest quality memecoins will be managed by people and teams who have aligned incentives with their holders, similar to how publicly traded companies are interested in doing the right thing for their shareholders.

bitcoin has always thrived when its community embraces challenges with creativity and conviction. Rather than dismiss memecoins as a fad, I'm interested in how bitcoin can become the foundation of a better token ecosystem, one based on security, transparency, and user empowerment under a bitcoin standard. Rather than missing the forest for the trees or throwing out the baby with the bathwater, it seems prudent to consider a more entrepreneurial approach to addressing the clear market demand for memecoins. Are there productive ways for bitcoin to filter out the noise while attracting the highest quality memes to the Runes ecosystem, or is this simply a high time preference idea?

It's not just the combined $100 billion market cap of DOGE and TRUMP that bitcoin is missing out on. We are also missing the mindset of the millions who participate in these projects, the talent of the developers who build on these chains, and the narrative that escapes us when competing chains capture significant market share that bitcoin seems unable or unwilling to do. even recognize. . By embracing innovation and carefully addressing these emerging trends, bitcoin can maintain its position not only as the strongest money, but also as the foundation of a dynamic economy, without compromising its fundamental principles.

This article is a Carry. The opinions expressed are entirely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of btc Inc or bitcoin Magazine.