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The price of bitcoin seemed to claim $ 100,000 on Friday, gathering at the back of the decision of the United States Stock Exchange and Securities Commission (SEC) to eliminate demand against crypto Exchange Coinbase. However, the main cryptocurrency could not capitalize on this impulse change after the exploit of $ 1.4 billion of the Bybit exchange.
With the price of bitcoin now round over $ 96,000, recent chain data suggests that certain volatility metrics are approaching historically low levels. This is how the latest volatility trend could affect btc's price performance in the coming weeks.
Is it a btc price rally on the horizon?
In a recent publication on platform x, the crypto Glassnode analysis firm <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/glassnode/status/1892901010575700134″ target=”_blank” rel=”noopener nofollow”>explained How two key volatility indicators that historically approach low levels could affect the price of bitcoin and its future trajectory. The two relevant metrics here are the “volatility made” of 1 week and the “implicit volatility of options”.
For the context, the volatility carried out (also called historical volatility) measures how much the price of an asset (btc, in this case) has changed during a specific period. Implicit volatility, on the other hand, is a metric that evaluates the probability of future changes in the price of an asset.
According to Glassnode data, the volatility carried out for 1 bitcoin week recently fell to 23.42%. The intelligence firm in the chain indicated that the current value of the metric is close to the historical minimums, since the volatility made by btc has only fallen below this level several times in the last four years.
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Source: Glassnode/x
In particular, the volatility metric made of 1 week fell to 22.88% and 21.35% in October 2024 and November 2024, respectively. These points have acted as funds, with the metric rebound of this level in the past. From a historical perspective, such decreases in the volatility performed have preceded the significant price movements, which increases the chances of a possible breakup, or even a correction.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/1740323297_45_Bitcoin-made-volatility-near-historical-minimums-what-this-means-for.jpeg" alt="bitcoin” width=”1199″ height=”675″/>
Source: Glassnode/x
At the same time, bitcoin's 1 week options imply volatility has also experienced a significant decrease to 37.39%. The current level of the indicator is close to the minimum of several years, seen for the last time in 2023 and early 2024. In the same way, the price of bitcoin witnessed a substantial market the last time the implicit volatility was around this level.
In addition, it is worth noting that the longest options implicit volatility currently exhibit a different trend. The implicit volatility of 3 months is around 53.1%, while the 6 -month indicator moves to 56.25%. This suggests that market participants expect greater volatility in the coming months.
bitcoin price at a glance
At the time of writing this article, bitcoin is valued at approximately $ 95,340, which reflects a decrease of more than 3% in the last 24 hours.
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The price of bitcoin on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on x/LjoreOdj/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">TradingView
Istock's prominent image, TrainingView graphics
