On-chain data shows that long-term bitcoin holders have recently engaged in a major sell-off, a sign that may not be ideal for the btc price.
Long-term bitcoin holders have been distributing recently
As on-chain analyst Checkmate explains in a new <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1860796465037373690″ target=”_blank” rel=”noopener nofollow”>mail At x, long-term bitcoin holders just showed their biggest profit-taking event of the current cycle.
“Long-term holders” (LTH) refer to btc investors who have held their coins for more than 155 days. This cohort constitutes one of the two main divisions in the sector made based on holding time, while the other group is known as the “short-term holders” (STH).
Statistically, the longer an investor holds their coins, the less likely they are to sell them at any time. As such, LTHs can be considered to include the diamond hands of the market, while STHs consist of the weak hands.
Although LTHs do not sell off very frequently, it seems that the latest price rally has been too good a profit opportunity for even these HODLers to miss.
There are several ways to track the behavior of this cohort, one of which is the amount of supply they are “spending.” Below is the chart shared by the analyst showing the trend in both the 30-day value and cumulative value of this bitcoin metric since November 2022.
<img decoding="async" class="alignnone aligncenter" src="https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Bitcoin-HODLers-sell-60-billion-worth-of-BTC-can-the.png" alt="Long-Term bitcoin Holder Distribution” width=”3834″ height=”1730″/>
The value of the metric appears to have been quite high in recent days | Source: <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1860796465037373690/photo/1" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">@_Checkmatey_ on x
As can be seen from the chart, bitcoin LTHs have seen their 30-day spent supply rise to high levels recently. In total, these investors have transferred around $60 billion worth of tokens over the last month.
Generally, every time these investors decide to break their slumber, it is for selling purposes, so it is likely that all this movement is correlated with a liquidation of the group.
Naturally, with this increase in 30-day spent supply, the accumulated value of spent supply has also skyrocketed. In the context of the current chart, this last metric tracks the cumulative value of the distribution amount that LTHs have been making since November 2022.
The reason Checkmate chose this month as the limit is that btc found the bottom of its last bear market in that month after the FTX crash. In other words, the month serves as the beginning of the asset's “current” cycle.
Currently, the indicator stands at 273 billion dollars. This means that last month's LTH distribution represented approximately 21% of all supply spent since the start of the cycle.
It is clear from the chart that these diamond hands also participated in a sell-off in the first quarter of the year and perhaps it was this sell-off that forced bitcoin to enter a consolidation phase.
Given this trend, it would be interesting to see if recent sales would have a similar effect on btc or if this time demand is high enough to overcome this hurdle.
btc Price
At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading around $95,500, up more than 8% over the past week.
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Looks like the price of the coin has seen a plunge over the past day | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image by Dall-E, checkonchain.com, TradingView.com chart
