NEWSLETTER
On-chain data shows that the supply of long-term holders of bitcoin has seen a shift recently. Here's what history says this could mean.
bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply May Have Bottomed
in a new <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/btcjvs/status/1879513869187682447″ target=”_blank”>mail On x, analyst James Van Straten discussed the latest trend in the supply of long-term btc holders. “Long-term holders” (LTH) refer to investors who have held their coins for more than 155 days.
LTHs are one of the two main market splits based on holding time, while the other side is known as “short-term holders” (STH).
Historically, STHs have proven to contain the fickle hands of the market that tend to sell easily on any FUD or FOMO in the sector. LTHs, on the other hand, contain resolute entities that can endure in both crises and upturns.
That being said, even these HODLers don't sit still forever as they are also there to make some profits eventually. One such LTH sell-off event occurred during the cryptocurrency's recent run, which hit an all-time high, implying that the rally was too good for diamond hands to pass up.
There are many ways to track LTH behavior, one method being to measure the combined amount of supply that cohort members have in their wallets.
Below is Glassnode's chart for the metric shared by the analyst, showing the trend of its value throughout bitcoin's history.
<img class="alignnone aligncenter" src="https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Bitcoin-HODLer-supply-growing-again-but-is-this-really-bullish.jpeg" alt="bitcoin LTH Supply” />
From the chart, you can see that the supply of bitcoin LTH was declining during the last few months of 2024 as these investors took profits from the rally, but recently, the indicator has shown little change as the group's holdings increased in around 20,000 btc.
This could suggest that cohort supply has bottomed out and reversed its upward trajectory. However, historically, lows in the metric have tended to occur around highs in the cryptocurrency's price, meaning this may not exactly be bullish for btc.
However, not all bitcoin highs that coincided with lows in LTH supply were cyclical highs. For example, the peak of the first quarter of last year coincided with a bottom of the indicator.
It only remains to be seen if the indicator's latest pattern implies that the most recent high was cyclical or if it was simply another local high on the way to the main high.
btc Price
bitcoin has continued its recovery since yesterday as its price has now surpassed the $99,000 level.
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