NEWSLETTER
According to the last Glassnode, the week in the chain reportbitcoin (btc) must remain above the base of the short -term holder (STH) to avoid possible downward risks. Historically, this price level has served as a crucial pivot point between the local bulls and the bearish market phases, so it is a key area to observe.
bitcoin should avoid sliding below the STH cost base
Since the beginning of February, btc has been quoting within a narrow range between $ 93,000 and $ 98,000. The main cryptocurrency for market capitalization has resisted the impact of several important macroeconomic events, including the president of the United States, Donald Trump, proposed commercial tariffs.
However, btc resilience does not guarantee immunity to change the feeling of the market. The Glassnode report emphasizes that for bitcoin to maintain its upward driver, it must remain above the STH cost base, which is currently at approximately $ 92,500.
According to the report, btc currently trades from $ 1,000 to $ 5,000 above the STH cost base. Past data indicate that the STH cost base level has generally acted as a pivot point in which the recent average buyer moves between a state of profits or losses not made.
If btc falls below $ 92,500, it would imply that the average short -term holder is in an unrealized loss, which potentially triggers the sale of panic. On the other hand, trade above this level means that most short -term holders have profits, which could reinforce the bullish impulse.
The Glassnode report includes a graph that illustrates this trend. As seen below, every time btc reached a new historical maximum (ATH), followed by a correction, tended to play the lower band of the STH cost base model.
The picture also shows that the lower trends of historical btc have been typically extended to approximately -1 standard deviation below the STH cost base. Applying this model to the current market cycle, btc could refuse as low as $ 71,600, where the lower band of the model is placed.
Cryptographic market close to 'decisive moment'
The report indicates that the encryption market is currently witnessing a phase of accumulation that reflects that of May 2021. Although the new investors aggressively accumulated btc in April 2024, the magnitude of the high supply rising trend STH in the current cycle Structurally align more with May 2021 instead of 2024 in 2024.
As a result, the market is close to a decisive moment, characterized by an acute price action in any direction. The report explains:
If the demand is still strong, bitcoin could establish a new range above ATHS. However, the lack of sustained purchase pressure could lead to deeper correction driven by distribution, similar to the posterior phases after ATH. This would probably be driven by panic among recent buyers who see that their recently acquired coins go from having profits to having an unrealized loss.
While there are risks down, btc Bulls can rejoice since it is likely that the expected decrease of the US dollar is benefit The cryptocurrency badly. In the same way, the feeling around btc is from Revive after depression in Memecoin Frenzy. At the time of publication, btc quotes $ 97,100, 1.2% more in the last 24 hours.
Unspash.com prominent image, Glassnode and TrainingView.com graphics
