The bitcoin (btc) market is currently experiencing significant changes in supply dynamics, with notable activity among long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH).
According to the latest <a target="_blank" href="https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/6777c1c8a315a278ef6123f6-bitcoin-supply-dynamic-LTH-selling-pressure-VS-STH-demand-and-realized-price” target=”_blank”>analysis Since CryptoQuant, such transitions have historically often indicated local market peaks or even cycle peaks, depending on the general market environment and broader economic conditions.
Currently, demand from short-term holders continues to play a critical role in supporting bitcoin's price stability amid the current market volatility.
Long-term holders vs. Short-term buyers
Analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost revealed that short-term holders, particularly those who acquired bitcoin in recent months, are actively influencing market sentiment.
When analyzing realized price data from various short-term holding periods, different levels of support and resistance become evident.
These realized price levels include $41,000 for the overall average realized price, $85,000 for general short-term holders, $99,000 for holders within one week to one month, $81,000 for one to three months and $60,000 for three to six months.
According to Darkfost, these figures reflect key psychological and technical price points at which market participants can make important buy or sell decisions.
The analyst revealed that the Short-Term Fork Spent Production Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) currently remains neutral at 1 after falling since bitcoin's latest rally, which took its price to an all-time high of $108,000. The STH SOPR serves as a key metric to evaluate the profit-taking behavior of short-term holders.
A neutral SOPR indicates that recent selling activity by short-term holders has not been significantly profitable, reducing the incentive for sell-offs at current price levels.
However, this neutral stance suggests possible obstacles to an immediate bullish recovery. The decline in the STH SOPR points to a decline in realized profits, which could curb the bullish momentum in the short term.
Despite these challenges, demand from short-term holders has managed to absorb much of the selling pressure from long-term holders, avoiding sharp price declines. Darkfost wrote:
In conclusion, so far the LTH selling pressure has been quite well absorbed by the STH buying pressure. However, we note that the STH SOPR is declining, which could hinder an immediate bullish recovery. In the short term, a period of consolidation or even a deeper correction could occur.
bitcoin Market Performance and Outlook
Meanwhile, bitcoin is currently trading at a price of $97,357 after recording a slight increase of 1.1% in the last day.
While this rally has helped btc regain positive momentum in recent weeks, it remains insufficient to push the cryptocurrency back to the six-digit price mark or its all-time high above $108,000.
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