Bitcoin faces CPI Shock: the research firm says 'Buy the news'

bitcoin and the largest cryptographic markets faced each other on January 12 after the latest US consumer price index. UU. (CPI) arrived hotter than expected. The clash sent bitcoin briefly down before recovering, stimulating a variety of reactions between merchants and analysts.

The United States Labor Statistics Office published figures that show an increase of 0.5%month to month on CPI, which places annual 3.0%inflation, over the previously anticipated 2.9%. Meanwhile, the central ICC (excluding volatile food and energy costs) grew 0.4% month by month, establishing an annual rate of 3.3% and exceeding consensus forecasts similarly.

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Shortly before the data, bitcoin saw a rapid fall of -2.1% to $ 94,250, that some market observers speculate that they could be linked to merchants or experts who receive an early indication of excess inflation. However, the recession was temporary; The prices recovered at maximum $ 98,100 as the worried retail merchants observed the reaction of the market.

An event of 'Buy the news' for bitcoin?

Santiment, an analysis firm in the chain, intervened in volatility in a Blog Dated February 13. In an update entitled “CPI capturing the eye of the crowd …”, Brian Quinlivan, Marketing Director of Santiment, said that market participants have become very sensitive to any inflation news, especially given the agitation of the last years.

Citing a maximum of 15 months in discussions related to the CPI through social channels such as x, Reddit, Telegram, 4Chan, Bitcoikik and Farcaster, Santiment highlighted the magnitude of the apprehension of the merchants: “Initially, just before it was announced The CPI report, bitcoin briefly briefly briefly falling -2.1% to $ 94,250 before recovering slightly. Quickly to $ 98,100 as retailers showed concern. ”

The post also explained that the shock of this launch of the CPI has revived the fears linked to changes in the Federal Reserve policy. After reducing the rates for 2023 and 2024, the Fed abruptly stopped the cuts in November 2024.

Santiment warns that this could indicate a prolonged period without additional rate reductions: “Now that inflation numbers are worrisome in the US. UU. Many predict that it will spend a lot of time before we see more cuts, which traditionally benefits the markets The increased rate in 2022, which were largely attributed to mass cryptographic correction, are still fresh in people's memories. “

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Despite the possibility of an extended monetary tightening, Santiment observed a possible opposite signal that involves the bitcoin holders counts: “We have already been seeing a decrease in total headlines in the bitcoin network, and this is generally a bullish signal . An ideal scenario would be for small merchants to exaggerately react to this news, allowing whales and sharks to collect more coins and send triggered prices. Based on the first price rebounds after the news, this can be configured to be a 'sell the rumor, buy the stage of the news'.

Market observers beyond Santiment have also intervened. Tom Dunleavy, partner of MV Global, also offered an optimistic version of the data, specifically pointing out the role of the costs of the shelter: “The key controller of this hot CPI impression was the house (1/3 of the title and 40% of nucleus inflation). This reading is massively delayed for almost a year. There is nothing to worry about, since more real -time readings show a home in the fall in the main markets, ”he said through x.

For many merchants, the hot question remains: this “hot” IPC reading will mark the beginning of a new inflationary trend, or is it simply a peculiarity of delayed data? Santiment's suggestion of a possible dynamic of “selling the rumor, buying the news” reflects how quickly can change the feeling in a cryptography market often driven by impulse and social consensus. Meanwhile, Dunleavy housing decomposition emphasizes that the main inflation numbers can be misleading without dissecting the underlying components.

At the time of publication, btc quoted at $ 96,028.

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