Bitwise, currently the fourth-largest spot issuer of bitcoin ETFs in the United States, with assets under management totaling $1.778 billion, has released a series of surprising predictions for bitcoin's outlook until the 2028 halving. . These twitter.com/BitwiseInvest/status/1783151424613794124″ target=”_blank” rel=”noopener nofollow”>projections They are not only based on past data and trends, but also reflect a deeper integration of btc into broader financial systems.
#1 Decrease in bitcoin volatility
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan anticipates a 50% reduction in btc volatility for the next halving in 2028. This prediction is based on the observed trend of decreasing volatility over the years, which is expected to accelerate due to the changing composition of market participants.
The influx of institutional investors through bitcoin ETFs has begun to stabilize price fluctuations. Unlike retail investors, who often react quickly to market changes and news, institutional investors typically employ strategies that involve regular, calculated entries and exits.
“ETFs have opened the door to a more disciplined approach to bitcoin investing, which we expect will significantly dampen the historical volatility associated with this asset class,” Hougan noted.
#2 bitcoin Allocations in Target Date Wallets
The prediction that bitcoin allocations will become common in target-date portfolios to the tune of 5% or more is based on the growing familiarity and comfort that financial advisors are finding in the cryptocurrency as a legitimate asset class. Hougan suggests that the current absence of btc in major US target-date funds is a temporary condition.
“As the market matures and volatility continues to decline, the perceived risk of including bitcoin in long-term diversified investment portfolios decreases, making it an increasingly attractive option for portfolio managers,” Hougan explained. This change is expected to be reflected in adoption rates seen in similar funds in Canada and other forward-leaning markets.
#3 Explosive growth in ETF flows
Since their launch in the United States, spot ETFs have seen approximately $12.5 billion in net flows, making them the fastest-growing new ETF category in history. Hougan projects that these funds will attract more than $200 billion by 2028, driven by greater availability and deeper due diligence by institutional investors.
“The trajectory we have seen with gold ETFs, which saw steadily increasing flows for years after their introduction, is a good model for what we expect with bitcoin ETFs,” Hougan said. Anticipation of eventual acceptance by national operators and greater institutional validation could serve as important catalysts for this growth.
#4 Central Bank Adoption of bitcoin
One of the most controversial predictions is that central banks could begin including btc in their reserves, attracted by its qualities as debt-free money that offers functional advantages over traditional reserves such as gold. “In a world where traditional financial systems are increasingly politicized, bitcoin offers an attractive alternative for central banks looking to diversify away from fiat currencies that can be influenced by foreign governments,” Hougan said.
The strategic importance of first-mover among central banks could trigger a domino effect, dramatically shifting the global financial landscape toward decentralized assets.
#5 btc price will exceed $250,000
The final prediction concerns the price of btc, which Hougan believes will exceed $250,000, raising its market capitalization to around $5 trillion. This price target is based on a combination of factors, including continued reduction in volatility, greater regulatory clarity, and broader institutional adoption.
“Each bitcoin/when-is-the-next-btc-halving-date-bitcoin-halving-guide/” target=”_blank” rel=”noopener nofollow”>reduce by half The cycle generates a confluence of technological, market and socio-political developments that have historically resulted in significant price appreciation. “With the progress we are seeing, a price of $250,000 is within the realm of possibility,” Hougan said.
At the time of publication, btc was trading at $64,064.
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