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The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will ignore market expectations and reject all applications for spot bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) this month, slashing 20% from bitcoin price, says Matrixport .
The applications do not yet meet the criteria needed for the SEC to grant approvals, analyst Markus Thielen said in a investigation Note on January 2nd. bitcoin price has plummeted in the last three hours and is down more than 6% in 24 hours to trade at $42,473 at 10:10 am EST.
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TradingView: btc/USDT 1-Day Chart
“While we have seen frequent meetings between ETF applicants and SEC staff, resulting in applicants resubmitting their applications, we believe that all applications fail to meet a critical requirement that must be met before the SEC approves,” he said. “This could be accomplished in the second quarter of 2024, but we expect the SEC to reject all proposals in January.”
The result of such denials will be cascading liquidations with the bulk of $5.1 billion in “additional perpetual long futures” unwinding, he added. bitcoin will quickly fall to $36,000 to $38,000 range, he said
If there are no approvals by January 5, Matrixport recommends that traders hedge their long exposure by purchasing $40,000 puts by the end of January or even directly shorting bitcoin through options, he added.
Matrix on Target projects a January rejection of bitcoin spot ETFs by the SEC, warning traders to hedge long exposure. With #SECOND President Gensler's skepticism toward crypto?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#cryptoa potential -20% bitcoin?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#bitcoin Price drop expected #ETF Denial, although a positive end to 2024… pic.twitter.com/IgaMhBJtiP
-Matrixport (@realMatrixport) January 3, 2024
Thielen said it would be “a long shot” to expect SEC Chairman Gary Gensler to vote in favor of approving spot bitcoin ETFs and, according to bitcoin-etf-applications-has-involved-recent-court-rulings” target=”_blank” rel=”noopener”>comments made in December, “still believes the industry needs stricter compliance.”
Additionally, he noted that the regulator's five voting commissioners are dominated by Democrats.
“From a policy perspective, there is no reason to approve a bitcoin spot ETF that would legitimize bitcoin as an alternative store of value,” he added.
JUST IN!!️ – SEC CHAIRMAN, GARY GENSLER:
“There has been too much FRAUD and bad actors in the 'cryptocurrency' space… this is the WILD WEST… it's hard for bona fide actors to even compete.”bitcoin?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#bitcoinnot crypto pic.twitter.com/sMoiCfwlUQ
– Swan Media (@Swan) December 14, 2023
bitcoin to rise in 2024 even if bitcoin spot ETFs reject this month
Thielen's opinion comes despite a series of compromises between the SEC and the petitioners, led by fund management heavyweights including BlackRock and Fidelity. This led to multiple amendments to the applications and crypto markets have been optimistic in anticipation of imminent approvals.
Even if the SEC rejects the ETF applications, Thielen still hopes that bitcoin-price-prediction-experts-forecast-bullish-trends-calsona-o1vue/”>bitcoin price will be higher by the end of 2024 because US election years and bitcoin halving years tend to be positive for the cryptocurrency king, he said.
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