Data shows that the recent drop has not affected long-term bitcoin holders as they have only increased their supply further.
The net position change of long-term bitcoin holders has been positive recently
As explained by analyst Ali Martinez in a new article x.com/ali_charts/status/1821468766804263235″ target=”_blank” rel=”noopener nofollow”>mail At x, the supply held by long-term btc holders has increased during the cryptocurrency's latest crash.
“Long-term holders” (LTH) here refer to bitcoin investors who have held their coins for more than 155 days. This group is one of the two main divisions of the btc market based on holding time, with the other cohort being known as the “short-term holders” (STH).
Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they are to sell or transfer them at some point, so LTH represents the stubborn side of the industry.
While STHs react easily to market events, LTHs tend to hold firm regardless of whether there is a rally or a crash. As bitcoin has experienced a crash recently, one might expect the former cohort to have panicked once again, while LTHs would have held firm.
One way to track the behavior of any cohort is through the “Net Position Change” indicator, which tells us about the net amount of btc entering or leaving the combined balance of the group.
Below is the chart showing the trend in this metric for bitcoin LTH over the past few months.
<img decoding="async" class="alignnone aligncenter" src="https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Bitcoin-crash-HODLers-don39t-flinch-as-they-add-10-billion.jpeg" alt="bitcoin LTH Net Position Change” width=”1800″ height=”1013″/>
The value of the metric seems to have been positive in recent days | Source: x.com/ali_charts/status/1821468766804263235/photo/1" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">@ali_charts on x
As can be seen from the chart, bitcoin LTH net position change has maintained notable positive levels throughout the recent bearish price action. This means that the pool’s total holdings have been increasing in value.
In these latest entries, LTHs have seen their supply increase by 184,500 btc, worth over $10.8 billion at the current exchange rate. One thing to keep in mind is that this recent increase does not indicate that these HODLers have been buying at present.
This is because the indicator has a 155-day lag, as coins are only included in the cohort after they have reached this maturity period. Therefore, the recent surge would mean that these coins were purchased five months ago and have now matured enough to become part of the group.
However, the same rule does not apply to sales, as coins see their age instantly reset to zero as soon as they are transferred across the blockchain, thus expelling them from the cohort.
While LTH’s recent positive net position change does not imply that accumulation is occurring at the moment, it is naturally still a bullish signal as it means that the HODLing decline has not broken conviction.
btc Price
At the time of writing, bitcoin is hovering around $58,900, down nearly 7% over the past week.
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Looks like the price of the asset has continued its recovery during the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image by Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart by TradingView.com
