Cryptocurrency investors are eagerly awaiting the next chapter in the bitcoin story, and this veteran trader just offered a possible plot twist.
In his analysis, Peter Brandt suggests bitcoin” rel=”nofollow noopener” target=”_blank”>bitcoin could gallop towards a record high of $130,000 at bitcoin-bull-market-cycles/” target=”_blank” rel=”noopener nofollow”>$150,000 by the end of summer 2025.
Brandt's forecast depends on a historical phenomenon known as bitcoin-halving-4843769#:~:text=Key%20Takeaways,block%20reward%20of%203.125%20BTC.” target=”_blank” rel=”noopener nofollow”>Halving bitcoin. Every four years, the number of Bitcoins awarded to miners is cut in half, restricting supply and theoretically driving up prices.
25% Chance bitcoin Has Already Peaked
But Brandt goes deeper: He argues that past halving dates have roughly coincided with the midpoint of bull market cycles. Since the most recent halving occurred in April 2024, his analysis suggests a peak between 16 and 18 months later, which will take us directly to that August-September 2025 window.
Peter Brandt's analysis. Source: bitcoin-bull-market-cycles/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">TradingView
Brandt himself recognizes the limitations of his prediction. He warns that “no method of analysis is foolproof,” adding a cautious 25% chance that bitcoin has already peaked for this cycle. This raises a critical question: are we already past the stampede and facing a crypto winter?
Factors underlying Brandt's analysis
There are additional factors tempering Brandt's optimism. One is the diminishing returns of each bull cycle. While all-time highs show impressive growth, gains appear to be moderating. The latest peak fell short of its predecessor, and if this trend continues, there is a chance we won't see a six-figure bitcoin this time around.
Furthermore, a price drop below $55,000 could signal a weakening bull market and a possible correction, sending shivers down the spines of even the most dedicated hodlers (long-term cryptocurrency holders).
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btc market cap currently at $1.3 trillion. Chart: TradingView.com
bitcoin Price Forecast
Meanwhile, the current crypto/bitcoin/price-prediction/” target=”_blank” rel=”noopener nofollow”>bitcoin price prediction indicates a strong bullish trend, projecting a substantial 28% rise to a price of $88,600 by July 3, 2024. This optimism is supported by positive market sentiment, as reflected by technical indicators. Bullish sentiment suggests investors are confident in bitcoin's upward trajectory.
Furthermore, the fear and greed index, which currently stands at 73 (Greed), indicates that market participants are becoming more eager to invest, which could drive the price up further. This level of the index indicates a high level of market confidence and could be a precursor to sustained price increases if sentiment persists.
Over the past 30 days, bitcoin's performance has shown mixed results with a 47% success rate in recording green days, indicating that almost half of the days were profitable. The price volatility of 4.45% suggests that while there is significant movement, it remains within a moderate range, characteristic of an active but not overly volatile market.
The combination of these factors – positive sentiment, a high greed index, and relatively controlled volatility – paints a picture of a market primed for continued growth, assuming there are no significant external shocks or negative news to impact the cryptocurrency landscape.
Featured Image from Pngtree, TradingView Chart