Bitcoin Bottom confirmed? The data show 87.5% probability

In the ongoing debate on the trajectory of the bitcoin market, two prominent cryptographic analysts have shared contrasting views in x, underlining the divided feeling of the community. While one maintains that a drastic recession remains possible, the other postulate that the worst recession on the market has already passed, citing a remarkable 87.5%probability.

bitcoin has problems?

crypto Analyst Doctor Profit (@drprofitcrlypto) <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/astronomer_zero/status/1900008176399032753″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>aware In x and it presents two potential paths for bitcoin: “There are two scenarios: a) The background will be 68-74k region in the normal market, b) Crash complete towards 50k in the Black Swan event.”

It did not provide a specific probability for any of the results, but emphasized that a black swan event, a term used to describe a rare and unexpected event that can drastically affect markets, cannot be ruled out. Although he pointed out that such an extraordinary recession was previously unlikely, he now recognizes that recent changes in the Macro panorama can leave space for it: “Take your bets, I would say that a black swan event was very unlikely in recent months, but ask me now, I would not rule out, rather welcome you.”

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In direct contrast, the Astronomer cryptographic analyst (@astronomer_zero) responded with a more optimistic perspective, stating that the lower part is already behind us. He referred to a history of bitcoin pricing reversions at the meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), claiming that it works “14 of 16 times” or approximately 87.5% of the time. “No guarantees, but a probability of 87.5%, granted the table below and all the confluences I already presented. So far, so good.”

Their approach is based on mapping price movements on FOMC dates, noting that markets often have a price of interest rates (and related news) before official announcements. Astronomer's method argues that bitcoin generally finds local funds in a window that covers from up to five “2D bars” before a FOMC date to the day of the meeting itself.

“All that requires is to turn a daily term (or 2 daily in my case to maintain the term of the table), draw all dates of the FOMC meeting and see what the price did. This shows that the actual price tends to be reversed when the time approaches FOMC. The warning is that the price is reversed before or last, just on the FOMC day, ”writes the analyst.

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He points out that the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for March 19, which means the background, if the historical pattern is valid, it should not appear later of that date: “It works almost every time, 14 of 16 times in fact (or 87.5% of the time) … the time difference that occurs the background versus the day of the FOMC is usually 0 to 5 2d bars before the exact date. Since the next FOMC is the next. In the last that day and earlier on March 5 “.

To reinforce his argument, Astronomer points out what he perceives as “scary peak” in the market. He sees the increased pessimism and “warning stalls of nothing” of the merchants established as typical signs that a rebound could be imminent: “feeling in terms of feelings, fear is reaching hilarious levels. Even the” reputable 'merchants are protecting their reputation (…) I do not blame anyone's methods, but I take it as a great background sign. “

At the time of publication, btc quoted at $ 83,277.

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