On July 4 and 5, bitcoin suddenly crashed, extending losses from record highs to close to 30%. Although there was a relief rally over the weekend, forcing the world’s most valuable currency to rise by almost 11%, btc remains in a bearish formation.
bitcoin Correction Is Not Over: Will Bears Surpass $50,000?
An analyst who x.com/bitcoinmunger/status/1810010996414513254″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>tookx confirmed this assessment, adding that the optimism of the past 48 hours could be nullified in the coming sessions. Since btc is not out of the woods yet, at least from a technical standpoint, the analyst predicted that the coin will not only sink below last week’s lows but will likely surpass the psychological $50,000 mark.
<img decoding="async" class="size-full wp-image-628445" src="https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Bitcoin-analyst-believes-prices-must-first-break-above-50000-before.jpg" alt="btc pulls back | Source: @bitcoimmunger via x” width=”1024″ height=”362″ srcset=”https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Bitcoin-analyst-believes-prices-must-first-break-above-50000-before.jpg?w=1600 1600w, https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Bitcoin-analyst-believes-prices-must-first-break-above-50000-before.jpg?w=460 460w, https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Bitcoin-analyst-believes-prices-must-first-break-above-50000-before.jpg?w=768 768w, https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Bitcoin-analyst-believes-prices-must-first-break-above-50000-before.jpg?w=860 860w, https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Bitcoin-analyst-believes-prices-must-first-break-above-50000-before.jpg?w=1536 1536w, https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Bitcoin-analyst-believes-prices-must-first-break-above-50000-before.jpg?w=750 750w, https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Bitcoin-analyst-believes-prices-must-first-break-above-50000-before.jpg?w=1140 1140w” sizes=”(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px” loading=”lazy” data-recalc-dims=”1″/>btc pulls back | Source: @bitcoimmunger via x
Pointing to historical price action, the coin said bitcoin could fall as low as $48,000 in the coming days, roughly 40% from its all-time high.
When this happens, and following the price action seen in 2017, when the coin also fell 40% after local peaks, the coin will resume the uptrend.
Still, looking at the analyst's assessment, the maximum and minimum anchoring of the Fibonacci retracement tool is subjective. For now, if the September 2023 to March 2024 range acts as swing lows, a 40% drop from local highs puts bitcoin $10,000 lower, around $37,000.
x/A9SBx7sz/”>x/A9SBx7sz/” alt=”bitcoin price shows a downward trend on the weekly chart | Source: BTCUSDT via Binance, TradingView” width=”1233″ height=”592″ loading=”lazy”/>bitcoin price shows a downward trend on the weekly chart | Source: x/A9SBx7sz/” target=”_blank”>BTCUSDT via Binance, TradingView
Cracks are starting to form on the weekly chart. After last week’s losses, the coin closed firmly below the 20-period moving average, which put sellers in control. Confirmation of last week's losses could set the market in motion, triggering further losses in the short term and taking the world's most valuable currency to $50,000 or even $40,000.
However, after the cool-off and depth no longer matters, another analyst predicts that the coin will bounce back strongly. If btc finds support at the level of around $47,000 to $50,000, the probability of it floating at least up to $102,000 is high.
This is the first level of the Fibonacci extension. At its highest point, the coin could reach $242,000 in the coming sessions.
Confidence that btc will recover after the current sell-off, triggered primarily by fears of a Mt. Gox liquidation and the ongoing German government crackdown, is based on history. After the halving, bitcoin prices tend to recover steadily.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-full wp-image-628444" src="https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/1720480842_737_Bitcoin-analyst-believes-prices-must-first-break-above-50000-before.jpg" alt="btc rally after the Halving | Source: @QuintenFrancois via x” width=”1024″ height=”614″ srcset=”https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/1720480842_737_Bitcoin-analyst-believes-prices-must-first-break-above-50000-before.jpg?w=1600 1600w, https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/1720480842_737_Bitcoin-analyst-believes-prices-must-first-break-above-50000-before.jpg?w=460 460w, https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/1720480842_737_Bitcoin-analyst-believes-prices-must-first-break-above-50000-before.jpg?w=768 768w, https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/1720480842_737_Bitcoin-analyst-believes-prices-must-first-break-above-50000-before.jpg?w=860 860w, https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/1720480842_737_Bitcoin-analyst-believes-prices-must-first-break-above-50000-before.jpg?w=1536 1536w, https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/1720480842_737_Bitcoin-analyst-believes-prices-must-first-break-above-50000-before.jpg?w=750 750w, https://technicalterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/1720480842_737_Bitcoin-analyst-believes-prices-must-first-break-above-50000-before.jpg?w=1140 1140w” sizes=”(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px” data-recalc-dims=”1″/>btc rally after the Halving | Source: @QuintenFrancois via x
In any case, an analyst x.com/QuintenFrancois/status/1810228276670947477″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>saying Holders should not panic and sell during the first 79 days following the halving event. Marking the beginning of the fifth epoch, the network reduced its rewards for miners on April 20, approximately three months ago.