On Monday, Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, an influential American investment management firm based in New York with $89.5 billion in assets under management, analyzed the current state of the bitcoin market. As the sixth-largest issuer of spot bitcoin ETFs in the United States, with $497 million in recent inflows, VanEck’s analysis of bitcoin is especially noteworthy.
in a x.com/matthew_sigel/status/1810314354522268015″ target=”_blank” rel=”noopener nofollow”>note For clients, shared on x, Sigel offers insight into the current factors driving bitcoin price fluctuations. He attributes the downward pressure of the past few days primarily to significant bitcoin sales by government entities and concerns about large, impending distributions from Mt. Gox’s estate.
“The trustee of Mt Gox currently holds approximately $8 billion worth of bitcoin, and has taken steps with the goal of distributing approximately $3 billion of the $8 billion,” Sigel explained. He expressed uncertainty about whether the creditors, who will receive these distributions in early July, will sell or hold on to their bitcoin. “Given the precedent set by GBTC, we anticipate that at least a quarter of these coins will be retained,” he added.
Sigel further explained the impact of the latest btc movements by the US and German governments. According to Arkham data, Germany has liquidated more than half of the 50,000 btc initially seized from the piracy website Movie2k.
This announced sale has spooked the market and came at a time when the US government also reduced its btc holdings. The latter holds a substantial amount of 213,297 btc (approximately $12 billion). Sigel noted a significant transfer of $240 million to Coinbase Prime on June 26, likely signaling a sale. He also commented on the strategic implications of these sales, suggesting that they were possibly done during a market period sensitive to liquidity shortages, such as the July 4 holiday in the US.
“This weak price action likely reflects malicious government selling in what was a relatively weak market on July 4, with a surplus of further selling potentially in the future,” he noted. Sigel also referenced recent speculation from Trump advisers about the establishment of a US government bitcoin strategic reserve, as reported by Forbes, which could signal a massive shift in policy.
Why VanEck remains cautious but bullish on bitcoin
As for broader market trends, Sigel noted that during bullish phases, bitcoin rarely falls below its 200-day moving average (DMA) for more than six weeks. However, the recent government sales could disrupt this pattern if they continue or are exacerbated by other negative news.
Despite these pressures, Sigel remains optimistic about macroeconomic conditions, citing a slowdown in inflation and a potential soft landing for the US economy. “The upcoming election could catalyze new all-time highs in btc as market prices adjust to four more years of deficit spending and a potentially friendlier US regulatory environment under the Trump administration,” he speculated.
Globally, bitcoin adoption is accelerating, particularly in emerging and frontier markets. Sigel highlighted recent initiatives by Kenya, Ethiopia, and Argentina to use state-owned energy resources for bitcoin mining, indicating a growing recognition of btc’s potential utility and value.
In conclusion, Sigel reaffirmed VanEck’s investment strategy, advocating for a disciplined approach to btc allocation within diversified portfolios. “We continue to recommend a dollar-cost averaging strategy for buying bitcoin, viewing 6% as a reasonable position size for btc and eth in most 60/40 benchmark portfolios,” he stated.
At the time of writing, btc was trading at $57,252.
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
