4 signs that $ 76.7k bitcoin is probably the best low

bitcoin (btc) fell to a minimum of four months of $ 76,700 on March 11, after a weekly decrease of 6% in the S&P 500 index.

The correction of the stock market brought the index to its lowest level in six months as investors have a higher price of a global economic recession.

Despite the 30% bitcoin fall from its historical maximum of $ 109,350, four key indicators suggest that the correction may have finished.

bitcoin Bear Market needs a 40%drop, usd strong

Some analysts argue that bitcoin has entered a bearish market. However, the current price action differs significantly from the November 2021 accident, which began with a 41% drop from $ 69,000 to $ 40,560 in just 60 days.

A comparable scenario today would imply a decrease to $ 64,400 by the end of March.

The current correction reflects the drop of 31.5% of $ 71,940 on June 7, 2024 to $ 49,220 for 60 days.

In addition, at the end of the Bear market of 2021, the US dollar was strengthening against a basket of foreign currencies, as reflected in the DXY index, which increased from 92.4 in September from 2021 to 96.0 in December 2021.

This time, however, the DXY began 2025 in 109.2 and since then has decreased to 104. The merchants argue that bitcoin maintains an inverse correlation with the DXY index, since it is mainly considered a risk asset instead of a safe coverage against the weakness of the dollar.

In general, current market conditions do not show signs that investors move to cash positions, which supports the price of bitcoin.

Healthy btc derived as investors fear the bubble

The bitcoin derivative market remains stable, since the current annualized premium on futures is 4.5%, despite a 19% price drop between March 2 and 11.

As a comparison, on June 18, 2022, this indicator fell below 0% after a strong 44% decrease from $ 31,350 to $ 17,585 in just 12 days.

Similarly, the financing rate of bitcoin perpetual futures moves near zero, indicating the balanced leverage demand between lengths and shorts. Bassist market conditions generally drive excessive demand for short positions, which pushes the financing rate below zero.

Several companies that quote on the stock market with market values ​​greater than $ 150 billion have seen a strong decrease in their maximums of all time, including Tesla (-54%), Palantir (-40%), NVIDIA (-34%), Blackstone (-32%), Broadcom (-29%), TSM (-26%) and ServiceW (-25%). The feeling of investors, especially in the artificial intelligence sector, has become bassist in the middle of the growing fears of recession.

Related: bitcoin $ 70k retrovotion part of 'macro correction' in the upward market – analysts

Merchants are concerned about a possible closure of the US government on March 15, since legislators must approve a bill to raise the debt limit. However, according For Yahoo's finances, the Republican party is still divided.

The key dispute points in the proposal of the president of the Mike Johnson representatives are a higher expense in defense and immigration.

It is likely that risk markets, including bitcoin, react positively if an agreement is reached.

The real estate crisis is not necessarily negative

The first signs of a real estate crisis could accelerate capital outputs in other scarce assets. According to February 27 data Of the National Association of Real Estate Agents of the United States, the signings of contracts in the home fell to a historical minimum in January.

In addition, an opinion article on February 23 at the Wall Street Journal revealed That more than 7% of the loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration have at least 90 days before, exceeding the peak of the 2008 high -risk crisis.

In essence, the bitcoin road to recover $ 90,000 is backed by a weaker US dollar, a historical evidence that a 30% price correction does not indicate a bearish market, the resistance in btc derivative markets, the spread of government closure risks and the early signs of a real estate crisis.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The points of view, the thoughts and opinions expressed here are alone of the author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the opinions and opinions of Cointelegraph.