$ 16.5b in Bitcoin options expire on Friday: BTC Price will shoot over $ 90K?

bitcoin investors (btc) are preparing for the expiration of the monthly options of $ 16.5 billion of the record on March 28. However, the real impact of the market is expected to be more limited, since the fall of btc below $ 90,000 caught offices offsembled and invalidated many bullish positions.

This change gives bitcoin Bears a crucial opportunity to escape a possible loss of $ 3 billion, a factor that could significantly influence market dynamics in the coming weeks.

Currently, the total open interest options for Call (BUY) are $ 10.5 billion, while the options to put (sell) are delayed at $ 6 billion. However, $ 7.6 billion of these calls are established at $ 92,000 or more, which means that bitcoin would need a gain of 6.4% of their current price to make them viable for the expiration of March 28. As a result, the advantage of bullish bets has weakened significantly.

bitcoin Bulls pray for a “decoupling” if it is restarted

Some analysts attribute bitcoin's weak performance to the current global tariff war and the US government expenses cuts, which increase the risk of an economic recession. Merchants care about slower growth, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector, which had taken the S&P 500 to a higher record on February 19 before falling 7%.

Meanwhile, bitcoin bulls are still hopeful for a decoupling of the stock market, although the 40 -day correlation is maintained above 70% since the beginning of March. Its optimism is derived from the expansion of the monetary base by the central banks and a greater adoption of Bitcoins by companies such as Gamestop (GME), Rumble (Ron), Metaplenet (Tyo: 3350) and Semler Scientific (SMLR).

As the date of expiration of options, bulls and bears approaching have a strong incentive to influence the bitcoin spot price. However, while bullish investors point to levels greater than $ 92,000, their optimism is only not enough to ensure that btc exceeds this brand. Delibit leads the options market with a 74%share, followed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) with 8.5%and 8%Binance.

Given the current market dynamics, bitcoin Bulls has a strategic advantage that is aimed at the expiration of monthly options. For example, if bitcoin remains at $ 86,500 at 8:00 am UTC on March 28, options will only be at stake of $ 2 billion in put (sell). This situation encourages Bears to drive bitcoin below $ 84,000, which would increase the value of active sales options to $ 2.6 billion.

Related: Gamestop Buy bitcoin Help at the price of btc would reach $ 200K?

bitcoin Bulls will have the advantage if btc Price passes $ 90,000

Below are five probable scenarios based on current price trends. These results estimate the theoretical profits based on imbalances of open interest, but exclude complex strategies, such as selling sales options to obtain exposure to price.

• Between $ 81,000 and $ 85,000: $ 2.7 billion on calls (purchase) compared to $ 2.6 billion in puts (sale). The net result favors call instruments at $ 100 million.

• Between $ 85,000 and $ 88,000: $ 3.3 billion called compared to $ 2 billion puts, favoring calls for $ 1.3 billion.

• Between $ 88,000 and $ 90,000: $ 3.4 billion calls compared to $ 1.8 billion positions. favor calls for $ 1.6 billion.

• Between $ 90,000 and $ 92,000: $ 4.4 billion calls compared to $ 1.4 billion puts, favoring calls for $ 3 billion.

To minimize losses, bears must push bitcoin below $ 84,000, a 3%drop, before the expiration of March 28. This movement would increase the value of PUT options (sell), strengthening its position.

On the contrary, bulls can maximize their profits driving btc above $ 90,000, which could create sufficient impulse to establish an upward trend for April, especially if they are intertwined in funds quoted in bitcoin exchange (ETF) at a strong rhythm.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The points of view, the thoughts and opinions expressed here are alone of the author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the opinions and opinions of Cointelegraph.