Travis Kling, founder and chief investment officer of Ikigai Asset Management, proposes a direct link between the results of the US presidential election and the price of bitcoin. Through x, Kling delves into the political dynamics and their perceived implications for cryptocurrency markets, focusing especially on the potential re-election of Donald Trump.
Why September 10th could be crucial for bitcoin
From Kling x.com/Travis_Kling/status/1826296275639411057″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>analysis It depends on several key political events and their corresponding impacts on betting markets, which he believes reflect broader economic expectations. “NFA. I’m often wrong. bitcoin has likely been trading with a correlation to a Trump win. And that makes sense to me. btc/crypto will do MUCH better under a Trump administration,” Kling stated.
He emphasized the perceived shortcomings of the Democratic National Convention and the expected endorsement of Trump by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as pivotal moments that could boost the price of bitcoin. “The Democratic National Convention doesn’t seem to be going particularly well. RFK is supposed to endorse Trump on Friday. These factors are showing up in Polymarket and if RFK leans towards Trump, I assume Poly will expand even further,” Kling noted. He anticipates these developments to peak on September 10.
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At that time, the first debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will take place in Philadelphia. “In my opinion, Trump has to lose. If he comes out in favor of Kamala like he did with Biden, the polls and polyamory should go up even more.”
Kling expects the price of bitcoin to rise towards $72,000. “Given that btc is being traded with Trump, it would make sense to me that all of this would add up to btc going back to the top of this 6-month range,” Kling speculated.
However, he also warned against over-optimism. Kling is unsure whether btc price can break out of the trading range established in mid-March “before the election unless the polls/Poly REALLY widen in Trump’s favor. Hate him or love him, this election is very important to us, and short-term price action is just one aspect of that.”
It's worth noting that not everyone shares Kling's view. Matthew Sigel, director of digital asset research at VanEck, offered an opposing perspective. Sigel stated: “bitcoin is not currently trading on Trump odds, though I expect that to change.
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FalconX, a prominent cryptocurrency broker, also recently conducted an analysis that examined the correlation between bitcoin prices and Trump’s election odds on Polymarket, a platform for betting on political outcomes. From June 1 to August 15, their findings indicated no apparent correlation, underscoring that other factors could have influenced bitcoin’s price more significantly. These factors included the German government’s sell-off of 50,000 btc and liquidations by former Mt. Gox customers.
A Trump-Kennedy Jr. coalition would undoubtedly be extremely bullish for bitcoin. While it increases the odds of Trump winning the US election, another staunch bitcoin supporter would join Trump’s campaign. Kennedy Jr., like Trump, has advocated for substantial government involvement in bitcoin, proposing that the Treasury Department should buy 550 Bitcoins per day until it accumulates 4 million btc in reserves.
At the time of writing, btc was trading at $61,067.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com