Will ETH price skyrocket after ETF launch? Gemini outlines the possibilities

Investors are eagerly awaiting the launch of ethereum spot ETFs this month, but reports of delays appear to have them baffled.

But once ethereum spot ETFs hit the market, these new products are estimated to attract net inflows of between $3 and $5 billion within the first six months of trading, according to a recent report published by cryptocurrency exchange Gemini.

ethereum ETFs are primed for a massive influx

Gemini analysis suggests that the introduction of US-based ethereum spot ETFs could significantly increase total assets under management (AUM). Combining the projected new inflows with existing assets in the Grayscale ethereum Trust (ETHE), total AUM of US-based ethereum spot ETFs could reach between $13 billion and $15 billion within the first half of operations.

He report He also noted that ethereum’s market value compared to bitcoin is currently near its lowest levels in recent years. However, the expected influx of capital into these new vehicles could potentially improve their market position relative to bitcoin.

If the eth/btc ratio were to return to its three-year average of 0.067, it would represent an increase of almost 20%. An even more optimistic scenario, reaching the maximum ratio of 0.087 observed in this period, would translate into a rally of 55%.

According to Gemini, inflows below $3 billion in the first six months would be “disappointing,” given that spot bitcoin ETFs attracted $15 billion in a similar period. Meanwhile, inflows above $5 billion, equivalent to a third of bitcoin ETF inflows, would be considered a strong performance. Reaching close to 50% of bitcoin ETF inflows, or around $7.5 billion, would be a “significant bullish surprise.”

Delays in the launch of the ethereum spot ETF

Currently, eight fund issuers have received 19b-4 approvals for a spot ethereum ETF and are awaiting final S-1 clearance to list and begin trading the products. Previous market predictions suggested a 73% chance of these ETFs launching before July 4. However, recent developments have significantly reduced those odds.

The SEC has reportedly requested additional reviews of the applications, leading to a delay. Despite this setback, final approval of the ethereum spot ETFs is still expected. Deadlines have been extended and fund issuers have been asked to submit updated applications by July 8.

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