In early February, Chicago wheat futures rose to the $7.7 per bushel level, the highest level in a month, continuing the market’s rally from the 15-month low of $7.2 on January 24, as that production setbacks in major exporters clouded prospects for increased supply.
Despite recent rains on Argentine farms, experts determined that the amount was insufficient to allay earlier concerns about the drought. Meanwhile, Kudyn, Ukraine’s economy minister, lowered expectations for the grain harvest as a result of outages and the overall damage to infrastructure in Ukraine due to Russian attacks.
However, industry research group Sovecon revised up shipment forecasts for Russia, the world’s top exporter, by 200,000 tons to 44.1 million for the current trading year.
Australia, another major exporter, forecast its production to reach a record 42 million tonnes in the same time period.
On Tuesday, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures fell due to an intraday trend reversal. Traders also said that a technical sale was underway and that the weather forecast indicated that the Great Plains of the southern US would see rains that would be advantageous for crop development. In addition, the weak export demand for US wheat and the recovery of the dollar put pressure on the market. US trade expectations are listed below for Thursday’s start of trading in the grains and soybeans complex.
Up to 3–4 cents on corn and wheat
During the overnight trading session, the more active CBOT Mild Red Winter Wheat contract rose to its highest level since January 4, helped by a drop in the value of the US dollar.
Wheat export sales reached 168,900 tons in the week ending January 26, according to data released Thursday morning by the US Department of Agriculture. That was less than the 300,000 to 875,000 tons that analysts had forecast.
Benchmark CBOT Index Overnight trading saw the March Soft Red Winter Wheat futures contract rise above its 50-day moving average. When last trading at $7.64 a bushel, KC, CBOT, March Soft Red Winter Wheat (WH3) was up 4-1/4 cents. MGEX March spring wheat rose 3-1/2 cents to $9.29-1/2 a bushel. March hard red winter wheat was the last 3-1/2 cents higher at $8.87-3/4.
On signs of rising export demand, corn futures are strengthening. Above market expectations of 600,000 to 1.35 million tons, the USDA said corn export sales were 1.756 million tons. Just off its session high of $6.85-1/4, CBOT March Corn (CH3) ended up trading 4 cents overnight at $6.85 a bushel.
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