Analysts' optimism about the probability of Approval of ethereum Spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in May is steadily declining, as Eric Balchunas, a once bullish senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, has reduced his prediction of products that will be approved to just 25%.
ethereum Spot ETF Odds Continue to Fall
Eric Balchunas, who noted that his chances of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving an ethereum ETF in May remain a dismal 25%, expressed his pessimism in an X mail. According to Balchunas, he would probably go lower if he could do it, which suggests how unsure the analyst is about the products.
The Bloomberg expert's ideas coincide with his colleague James Seyffart's publication about Bitwise Invest's latest ethereum ETF. Thursday, Bit by bit Invest registered shares of your eth ETF with the SEC using a Form S-1 registration statement, which is the first stage of applying for exchange products.
Following this, a Form 19b-4 was filed, announcing the company's intention to list the ETF on a stock exchange. Bitwise plans to issue shares of the eth investment vehicle on NYSE Arca, according to its 19b-4 amendment filing filed with the SEC.
Both filings came amid rumors that the SEC was attempting to classify eth as a security under its regulatory scope, raising concerns about future listings of eth ETFs. Bitwise Invest is the latest asset firm to join the eth ETF race, signaling the firm's confidence in an approval ahead of the May deadline.
Although some in the cryptocurrency world welcomed this move as an indication that regulations would soon approve it, experts like Eric Balchunas are still not convinced and warn that the likelihood is still slim.
Balchunas stated that he has been tagged in tweets about the latest Bitwise filing, the eth correlation study, and other eth ETF hopium. Despite his high regard for the events, he still believes the chances of approval are very low.
Additionally, with seven weeks left until the May deadline, Balchunas noted that the SEC's radio silence remains depressing. “Again, I personally want to get it approved, but I also want to get the decision right so we are a perfect 4 for 4 in crypto ETF predictions,” he added.
New correlation as part of Bitwise eth ETF presentation
It is worth noting that Bitwise's recent ethereum Spot ETF filing includes the publication of a new correlation analysis. This marks the first eth correlation analysis that mimics the precise evaluation process of bitcoin (btc) by the SEC, providing a promising result.
Bitwise conducted several studies to specifically reflect the SEC's evaluation of bitcoin. These include the same 2.5-year sample period, exact intraday correlation intervals, the same correlation statistic, and others.
For hourly, one-minute, and five-minute correlations, differences in correlation values across the entire sample period are limited to 0.2%, 8%, and 5%, respectively.
Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
