Approval forecasts for the long-awaited ethereum Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)) are declining as leading market analysts and experts express doubts about their likelihood, citing a significant drop in approval odds over time.
ethereum ETF Approval Odds Drop to 35%
On Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence ETF expert Eric Balchunas reported that ethereum spot ETF approval odds have plummeted massively in recent months. Eric Balchunas took to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to share the update with the cryptocurrency community.
According to the expert, we now only have a “35% chance of getting the eth ETFs approved” by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ahead of Standard Chartered’s expected May deadline.
Balchunas initially estimated a 70% chance of ETF approval by May, a big change from his January forecasts. The Bloomberg analyst made it clear that, in his opinion, there are several reasons why the Commission should approve spot ETFs.
However, this time, he says, “none of the sources or indicators that gave you a 2.5-month bullish outlook” for bitcoin spot ETFs are present at the moment. This simply demonstrates the uncertainty around the products in the broader crypto landscape.
However, Balchunas has urged the community not to completely lose hope as there is a possibility that ethereum ETFs could be approved, as a 35% probability is not 0%, suggesting a long-term probability of approval.
Balchunas' post came in response to the post by Fox journalist Eleanor Terret, who shared his reflections on the subject. Eleanor Terret called attention to Jake Chervinsky's views and stated that they align with what she “has been hearing” regarding approvals.
However, this does not imply that the products will not be accepted within the year. He further noted that there has been “no meaningful interaction by SEC officials” regarding the applications and that “the May deadline is rapidly approaching.” Terret has expressed some optimism about the approval, saying “the agency could take a nosedive on its commitment in April or May.”
The cycle of eth spot ETFs is different from that of btc spot ETFs
Another Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst, James Seyffart, has also shared his thoughts on the matter. Adding to the ideas of Eric Balchunas, Seyffart noted that “the ethereum ETF cycle currently appears to be the reverse of the bitcoin ETF probability of approval.”
Seyffart stressed how “their optimism diminishes as they watch and listen more, and when they don't watch and listen more.” According to Seyffart, there are just under “73 days” until the approval deadline and it appears that no progress has been made.
It should be noted that the world's largest prediction market, Polymarket, has also confirmed the decreased acceptance probabilities. ethereum-etf-approved-by-may-31?tid=1710226630983″ target=”_blank” rel=”noopener nofollow”>Data of the platform shows that the ethereum ETF odds currently stand at 36%.
Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
