Institutional adoption is gaining momentum following the introduction of the bitcoin Spot ETF in January, and Pantera anticipates a convergence of positive factors, including the upcoming halving at the end of April 2024. The hedge fund believes this will drive the next bull market.
Pantera further identified the current phase as the start of the fourth major cycle, predicting a potentially strong bullish trend in cryptocurrencies spanning 18 to 24 months.
Half a trillion dollar untapped opportunity
In your last investor notePantera stated that it is a significant opportunity for bitcoin, estimating its potential value at half a trillion dollars.
The hedge fund projected that if decentralized finance (DeFi) on bitcoin reaches similar proportions as ethereum, the total value of DeFi applications could reach $225 billion, making up 25% of the market capitalization of bitcoin. This estimate ranges from $72 billion to $450 billion, assuming no changes to bitcoin's current market capitalization.
Additionally, Pantera suggested that bitcoin's leading DeFi application could eventually reach a valuation of $20 billion, representing 2.2% of bitcoin's value and potentially ranking among the top 10 most valuable assets in the crypto ecosystem.
Despite bitcoin's near return to trillion-dollar asset status, Pantera claimed that a significant half-trillion-dollar opportunity remains untapped.
“The era of bitcoin abandonment may finally be coming to an end. In the post-ETF era, Wall Street is finally realizing the obvious about bitcoin as an asset. “The next era will focus on bitcoin as a technology and the renewed enthusiasm for building for bitcoin.”
bitcoin DeFi so far
Maximalists have strongly advocated for bitcoin to retain its status solely as a digital asset, opposing its evolution into an ecosystem that facilitates blockchain applications such as DeFi and NFTs. But in 2023, a psychological shift occurred within the bitcoin community and investor appetite for DeFi in bitcoin was renewed.
Pantera highlighted that the release of fungible and non-fungible assets kicked off the first waves of DeFi and nft activity on ethereum and similar early signals are “bugging to the surface” across the bitcoin ecosystem.
Furthermore, distrust arising from the failures of centralized services such as FTX, BlockFi, Celsius and Genesis of an entire cohort of investors in centralized financial platforms, potentially driving them to explore new opportunities in DeFi.
As such, a decentralized financial system appears to be gradually taking shape, with bitcoin as the cornerstone. Pantera also suggested that the potential of this decentralized financial system in bitcoin could rival or surpass that of ethereum's DeFi ecosystem, albeit through a different evolutionary trajectory.
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