Over the past 14 days, bitcoin price has shown a major uptrend of 14.5%, indicating a resurgence in bullish sentiment. This rally comes as bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been trading for almost a month, and the market is already factoring in this development. As a result, bitcoin has returned to its natural course, gaining momentum ahead of the halving planned for April.
Currently, bitcoin has not only regained its bullish momentum after a brief drop to the $38,500 level, but has also broken through the $45,300 mark. Now he is getting closer to his maximum of 25 months of $49,000, with the goal of $50,000 within our reach.
Reaching this level would significantly narrow the gap between the current price and bitcoin's all-time high (ATH) of $69,000. However, what are the main catalysts behind this bullish trend and how far can the price of bitcoin rise?
Reduced GBTC Flows and Positive Net btc Spot ETF Inflows
According to the latest analysis by QCP Capital, two key factors are driving bitcoin's upward trajectory:
Grayscale bitcoin Trust (GBTC) daily outflows have decreased from $500 million to $600 million to $100 million to $200 million. At the same time, total inflows into all bitcoin ETFs are now positive. This change in GBTC flows and the emergence of positive net inflows into btc spot ETFs contribute to the current bullish trend, according to the cryptocurrency trading firm's analysis.
Additionally, notable price movements have been observed around “spot ETF fixings.” Between 3 and 4 pm EST, QCP has recorded that the price of bitcoin is trending higher, possibly due to the one-hour observation window used by the BlackRock ETF (IBIT) to calculate its net asset value (NAV)..
In contrast, downward pressure is typically seen after 4 pm EST as GBTC employs a spot solution, leading market makers to sell around and after the solution.
Strong performance in US stocks
Despite the Fed's hawkish stance and higher US yields driven by strong February nonfarm payrolls data (353,000 reais vs. 180,000 expected), US stocks continue to perform well.
Companies like NVDA and META have rallied thanks to strong earnings and positive headlines. Investors with under-allocations will likely continue to buy any dips in stocks as they look for yield.
According to the analysis, this bullish sentiment is expected to “spread” to btc and ethereum (eth), further boosted by the upcoming btc halving and eth spot ETF narratives.
Ultimately, the trading firm assesses significant interest in accumulators, which allow investors to purchase bitcoin or eth at a “substantial discount” to the current spot price. This strategy is believed to present an attractive opportunity for bullish investors looking to build long positions throughout the year.
bitcoin price faces strong barriers on its way to $50,000
Despite the bullish trend, notable resistance levels could prevent further bullish movement and potentially lead to a consolidation phase for bitcoin.
To accurately evaluate the nearest term resistances, the 1 hour chart indicates possible price trajectories for bitcoin in the coming days if these bearish thresholds are surpassed.
In the immediate period, the $45,500 level emerges as the next resistance level for bitcoin. This level previously marked a correction in the price of bitcoin shortly after the introduction of ETF trading.
Subsequently, the next target would be the $46,600 level if the immediate resistance of $45,500 is broken. However, while these two thresholds may present challenges, no significant resistance levels are evident on bitcoin's hourly chart up to the $48,500 level.
This particular level represents the last hurdle for bitcoin before reclaiming its previous high reached on January 11, immediately after the US approval of ETFs. National stock market Commission (SECOND).
Taking into account the combined factors of the tapering Grayscale sell-off and the overall stock market performance, along with renewed investor sentiment, bitcoin could potentially reach previous highs and even surpass them, setting new highs since the end of the cryptowinter.
The key factor to watch is how bitcoin price will respond when it encounters these highlighted walls of resistance and whether the buying pressure will be enough to push bitcoin back towards the bullish momentum seen in early 2024.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent NewsBTC's views on whether to buy, sell or hold investments, and investing naturally carries risks. It is recommended that you conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use the information provided on this website at your own risk.
